Ancient Whale Emerges, Causing Market Fluctuation, Bitcoin Outlook Remains Positive

Recently, a group of Bitcoin addresses that had been inactive for 14 years suddenly became active, causing a brief panic in the market. These addresses hold a total of 80,000 Bitcoins, which analysis suggests may belong to an independent miner from 2011. The miner had accumulated mining rewards for 180 blocks that year and once held 200,000 Bitcoins, making them the fifth largest holder in Bitcoin history.

The market reacted nervously to this news, mainly because the holding cost of these Bitcoins was only $1.76 each. Based on the current price of about $108,000, the unrealized gains reached as high as 61,000 times. If these Bitcoins are sold, it could likely have a huge impact on the market. It's worth noting that the German government’s sale of nearly 50,000 Bitcoins in 2024 triggered months of market fluctuations, with a maximum drop of 32%.

There are various speculations in the market regarding the reasons for these "sleeping" Bitcoins suddenly awakening. Some believe it could be that an individual who was previously convicted for illegal fundraising has regained asset disposal rights; others speculate that ancient miners accidentally recovered hard drives containing private keys. However, more analyses lean towards the idea that this may be the main capital driving the recent surge in Bitcoin testing market reactions in preparation for future distribution of chips.

From the current situation, the third possibility is more likely. First, these Bitcoins were transferred to a new address without any further actions, which aligns with the regular security management behavior of large holders. Second, after the news broke, the price of Bitcoin only dropped slightly by 1.09%, indicating that the market did not panic excessively about this. These two points suggest that the likelihood of a large-scale sell-off in the short term is low.

At the same time, the macro policy environment in the United States is undergoing significant changes. A recently passed important bill is expected to lead to an increase in the federal budget deficit of up to $5 trillion, significantly expanding the scale. Although this may exacerbate the risk of U.S. debt in the long run, these measures are expected to increase household income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market in the short term.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is considering adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rules for the banking system, which could free up about $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large banks and suppress long-term yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. These policy changes are expected to provide ongoing support for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently still in the main upward wave phase, and short-term market fluctuations only trigger intraday level oscillations. With strong market consensus, the likelihood of a deep adjustment in Bitcoin is low. After a brief consolidation, the price is expected to continue rising, with a long-term target price range of $127,600 to $137,500.