Trump pressures Russia: ceasefire within 50 days or heavy taxes, Bitcoin may become the preferred safe-haven asset

📊 The Ruble Strongly Rebounds, Russian Stock Market Soars 2.7%

According to LSEG data, as of 16:05 GMT, the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar is 78.10, having fallen to 78.75 during the day. Since the beginning of this year, the ruble has cumulatively risen about 45% against the US dollar. Against the renminbi, the ruble has risen 0.8% to 10.87, reversing last Friday's 1% decline.

The Russian stock market also responded with a rise, the Moscow Exchange Index rose by 2.7%, reflecting the market's positive reaction to Trump's speech.

⚠️ Trump issues final ultimatum: Peace agreement must be reached within 50 days

After meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, Trump announced that the United States will provide a large amount of advanced weapons to Ukraine in the coming days, including Patriot air defense systems, missiles, and ammunition transferred through NATO channels. He emphasized that if Russia and Ukraine fail to reach a ceasefire agreement within 50 days, the United States will initiate its sanctions mechanism.

• Impose 100% secondary tariffs on all countries that still trade with Russia;
• For example, if India continues to purchase Russian oil, the products it exports to the United States will be subject to a 100% import tax, equivalent to an economic penalty;
• This move will lead to a significant decrease in exports from these countries to the U.S., and indirectly weaken Russia's financial sources.

🔥 Ukraine Responds: Thank You for Your Support, Seeking a "Durable and Just Peace"

Ukrainian President Zelensky thanked Trump for his "clear support" on the X platform. He stated that the two discussed how to strengthen air defense systems, enhance frontline military power, and achieve a "more effective peace process."

Ukraine simultaneously held a meeting with representatives of the Trump camp—U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, describing it as a "productive exchange."

🪖 "Top Weapons" are about to arrive on the battlefield, Trump takes a tougher tone.

This is Trump's first announcement of military aid to Ukraine since returning to the White House. Although specific weapon models have not been disclosed, they are described as "cutting-edge weapons" worth billions of dollars, which will be rapidly deployed to the battlefield.

Trump's tone is clearly tough; he stated that after multiple "friendly calls" with Putin, there were fierce airstrikes that followed, saying, "You start to feel that these conversations are meaningless." He even remarked, "I don't want to call him a killer, but he's a tough character."

🧭 Geopolitical uncertainty triggers a chain reaction in the market

Trump's remarks have sparked different interpretations in Russia:

• Former Putin advisor Sergey Markov called it "huffing and puffing";
• Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, Kosachev, stated, "If this is all Trump has planned for Ukraine, then it's nothing special."

Nevertheless, several observers pointed out: the 50-day time window may become a key node in determining the situation of the Russia-Ukraine war, the direction of international capital flows, and the safe-haven function of crypto assets. "Trump's performance is below market expectations," said Invest Era analyst Artyom Nikolayev. "He has given the Russian leadership 50 days to achieve some results and extend the negotiation process. Moreover, Trump likes to postpone and extend such deadlines."

📈 Bitcoin Investors' Focus: The Transmission Effects of Energy Exports + Sanction Mechanisms

If the 100% secondary tariff measures are implemented, it will have a substantial impact on Russia's energy export chain. Since oil and gas revenues account for one-third of Russia's budget and more than 60% of its export volume, a significant reduction in foreign exchange inflows may result in:

• Ruble liquidity tightening；
• Capital outflow restrictions affect the USDT and BTC trading pair exchange rate differences within Russia;
• The demand for safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has once again strengthened, especially in Eastern Europe and certain Central Asian countries.