After 14 years of dormancy, 80,000 BTC awaken. Analysis suggests it may be a market maker testing the market.

The Bitcoin market has once again fallen into fluctuation, due to the sudden activation of 80,000 Bitcoins that had not been touched for 14 years. According to analysis, these Bitcoins may belong to an independent miner from 2011, who accumulated rewards from 180 blocks and once held 200,000 Bitcoins, making him the fifth largest holder in Bitcoin history.

The main reason for market concerns is that the holding cost of these Bitcoins is only $1.76 per coin, and at the current price of $108,000, the unrealized gains reach as high as 61,000 times. A large-scale sell-off would have a significant impact on the market. Looking back at the months-long market turbulence triggered by a certain country's government selling nearly 50,000 Bitcoins in 2024 (with a maximum drop of 32%), the potential selling pressure of 80,000 Bitcoins could bring about more severe market fluctuations.

Data research shows that the probability of Bitcoin that has not moved for ten years re-entering market circulation is only 0.5%, so addresses that have held coins for more than ten years are usually considered permanently lost. There are various speculations in the market regarding the reasons for this sudden "awakening" of Bitcoin:

1. A person who was sentenced for misappropriating funds from illegal fundraising has been released early and regained the right to dispose of assets.

2. Early miners unexpectedly retrieved the hardware device that stored the private key.

3. The main force driving this round of Bitcoin rise is in agreement with a certain large holder, and activating these Bitcoins is to test market reactions in preparation for subsequent operations.

From the current situation, the third possibility is the greatest. The main reasons are: First, the large holders only transferred Bitcoin to new addresses without any other operations, which is in line with the security management practices of large holders; second, after the news broke, the price of Bitcoin only fell slightly by 1.09%, indicating that the market leaders did not view this as a significant risk factor.

Recently, the U.S. government launched a new economic stimulus plan, which includes large-scale tax cuts and increased fiscal spending. This policy is expected to result in a federal budget deficit increase of about $5 trillion, significantly exceeding previous similar policies. Although it may increase the national debt burden in the long term, it is expected to boost household income, stimulate consumption, and drive up the stock market in the short term.

In addition, potential adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) of the banking system may also bring benefits. Regulators are considering lowering the requirements for large banks from 5% to 3.5%, and may exclude low-risk assets from the leverage ratio calculation. This adjustment is expected to free up about $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large banks and help reduce long-term bond yields.

Currently, the macro policy mix in the United States is clear: new debt will be jointly borne by the banking system and the stablecoin legislation, while the interest rate cut policy will provide basic liquidity support for this. This policy system is expected to operate smoothly in the short term and is likely to continue supporting the stock market and risk assets such as Bitcoin to remain strong.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a primary uptrend, with short-term market fluctuations only causing intraday level oscillations. With strong market consensus support, Bitcoin is unlikely to undergo a deep correction. After a brief consolidation, prices are expected to continue rising, with a long-term target range of 127600-137500.