Market Watch Before Fed Interest Rate Decision: Analysts Predict Bitcoin Will Break $106,000 and Start a New Round of Pump

Market Observation

The Fed will announce the June interest rate decision tomorrow morning, and the market is highly focused on the officials' expectations for the number of interest rate cuts this year as indicated in the dot plot. Some analysts believe that while two rate cuts this year are still the majority expectation, some officials may prefer to cut rates only once. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut, or if the Fed chairman indicates after the meeting that there is no urgency to cut rates, it could lead to a stronger dollar. Currently, it is expected that the Fed may implement the first rate cut of 2025 in September.

At the same time, the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has raised global concerns over oil supply. The next 24 to 48 hours will be critical in determining whether the issue can be resolved through diplomatic means. The United States has increased its military assets in the Middle East. However, some analysts point out that the market's calm response to the geopolitical situation may stem from an "immune" reaction to the relevant policies, and investors are not overly pricing in the worst-case scenario.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback due to geopolitical risks, briefly dipping to around $103,000, and is currently quoted at $105,478. Some analysts believe that the current price range provides a good accumulation opportunity, and if it breaks through $106,000, it will initiate a new round of strong rise. Short-term support levels are around $103,000 and $100,000. Additionally, some analysis indicates that $108,951 and $110,406 are key resistance levels, and breaking through $109,000 with increased trading volume may be a signal to go long. There are also opinions suggesting that if it breaks through $109,507 and $111,991, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $119,164.

Ethereum is currently hovering around $2,548, having made several attempts to break through the $2,700 resistance recently without success. Some analysts believe that despite on-chain data indicating a long-term bullish outlook, the short-term technicals remain complicated, and a break above $2,600 is needed to reignite upward momentum. Other forecasts suggest that Ethereum will target $2,800, which could subsequently drive altcoin performance.

In terms of market dynamics, the three major US stock indices generally closed lower, and cryptocurrency concept stocks performed weakly. The US Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory bill, but the market reacted tepidly, with related concept stocks and tokens performing flatly. Several social media accounts related to cryptocurrency have been unfrozen. Multiple projects have rapidly risen on-chain, but some have already seen a pullback.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $105,461 (Year-to-date +12.71%), Daily trading volume $34.805 billion
• Ethereum: $2,535.82 (Year-to-date -24.03%), Daily trading volume $22.424 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Market Share: BTC 64%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 68,397 people liquidated globally, with a total amount of 322 million USD.

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$216 million (net inflow for 7 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$11,094,700

Today's Outlook

• Purpose XRP ETF will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange
• Multiple crypto projects will undergo token unlocks.
• Fed interest rate decision and press conference

Hot News

• VanEck plans to launch a Solana spot ETF
• The US GENIUS Act was approved in the Senate, marking an important step in stablecoin legislation.
• Eigen Labs launched a new platform and received $70 million in investment.
• Canadian listed companies choose Litecoin as a reserve asset
• World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months.