The Truth About Liquidity: 2024 Exchange Coin Listing Effect Research Report

1. Introduction to Research

1.1 Research Background

Since the beginning of this year, the market has sparked widespread discussion about VC tokens with high fully diluted valuation ( FDV ) but low circulating market cap ( MC ). With the new tokens issued in 2024, the MC/FDV ratio has dropped to the lowest level in the past three years, indicating that a large number of tokens will be unlocked and enter the market in the future. Although the initial circulation is low, the market may see a price increase in the short term due to rising demand, but this increase lacks sustainability. Once a large number of tokens are unlocked and enter the market, the risk of oversupply increases, and investors begin to worry that this market structure may not provide lasting support for price increases.

As a result, many investors' interests have begun to shift from these VC coins to Meme coins. The characteristic of Meme coins is that most tokens are fully unlocked at TGE, resulting in a higher liquidity and no sell-off pressure from future unlocks. This structure reduces the supply pressure in the market and gives investors more confidence. Many Meme coins have a market cap to fully diluted valuation (MC/FDV) ratio close to 1 at issuance, meaning holders will not face dilution from further token issuance, providing a relatively stable market environment. As awareness of the risks associated with large-scale token unlocks deepens, investors' interests have gradually shifted towards these highly liquid and low inflation rate Meme coins, even though these tokens may lack practical application scenarios.

In the current market landscape, investors are required to be more cautious in selecting tokens. However, when choosing tokens, investors often find it difficult to independently assess the value and potential of each project. At this time, the filtering mechanism of the exchange becomes crucial. As the "gatekeeper" that directly pushes token assets to users, centralized exchanges not only help verify the compliance and market potential of tokens but also play a role in filtering quality projects. Despite another voice in the market suggesting that on-chain transactions will surpass CEX transactions, this study believes that the market share of centralized exchanges will not be taken over by on-chain transactions. Factors such as the smoothness of CEX transactions, centralized custodianship of assets, the establishment of user habits and mindsets, liquidity barriers, and global regulatory compliance trends, ensure that the transaction share in CEX will consistently and sustainably exceed that of on-chain transactions.

So, the question that follows is, how do centralized exchanges filter and decide which projects to list among many? How has the overall performance of the coins listed in the past year been? Is there a correlation between the performance of these listed tokens and the exchanges that chose them?

In order to address these questions of concern to the market, this study aims to explore the listing status of various exchanges and analyze their actual impact on token market performance, focusing on the changes in trading volume and price fluctuation characteristics after the listing, in order to identify the influence of different exchanges on the market performance of coins after they are listed.

1.2 Research Methodology

1.2.1 Research Object

We combine the exchange with regions and market orientation, mainly divided into these three categories:

Created by Chinese, aimed at the global market: certain exchanges, certain exchanges, certain exchanges, certain exchanges, certain exchanges, certain exchanges, etc. Mainly known exchanges founded and invested by Chinese, targeting the global market. There are many Chinese exchanges, and for research purposes, the selected exchanges have different development characteristics, while the exchanges not selected also have their own advantages.

South Korea creation, aimed at local: a certain exchange, another exchange, etc. Mainly targeting the local market in South Korea.

Created in the United States, targeting Europe and America: certain exchanges, certain exchanges, etc. The U.S. exchange mainly targets the European and American markets and is usually subject to strict regulation by the SEC, CFTC, and others.

Exchanges in regions such as Latin America, India, and Africa, due to overall trading volume and Liquidity being less than 5%, will not be analyzed in depth in this report.

We selected a total of 10 representative exchanges mentioned above to analyze their coin listing performance, including the number of coin listing events and their subsequent market impact.

1.2.2 Time Range

Mainly focus on the price changes of the token on the 1st day after the TGE, the previous 7 days, and the previous 30 days, analyzing its trends, volatility patterns, and market reactions for the following reasons:

• On the first day of the TGE, new assets are issued, and trading volume is highly active, reflecting the market's immediate acceptance. Influenced significantly by snatching up and FOMO sentiment, this is a critical stage for the market's initial pricing.
• The price changes in the first 7 days after the TGE can capture the market's short-term sentiment towards the new token, as well as the initial recognition of the project's fundamentals, measure the sustainability of market enthusiasm, and revert to the project's reasonable initial pricing.
• The first 30 days after TGE will observe the long-term support of the token, the cooling of short-term speculation, and the gradual exit of speculators. Whether the token price and trading volume are maintained will become an important reference for market recognition.

1.2.3 Data Processing

This study adopts a systematic data processing method to ensure the scientific nature of the analysis. Compared to common research methods on the market, this study is more intuitive, concise, and efficient.

In this research report, the data mainly comes from TradingView and covers the price data of newly listed tokens on major exchanges in 2024, including the initial listing price, market prices at different time points, and trading volumes. Due to the large number of sample points, this large-scale data analysis helps to reduce the impact of single anomalous data on the overall trend, thereby improving the reliability of the statistical results.

(I) Overview of Multivariable Coin Listing Activities

This study adopts a multivariate analysis method, comprehensively considering factors such as market conditions, trading depth, and Liquidity, to ensure the comprehensiveness and scientificity of the results. We compared the average price fluctuations of new coins from different exchanges and conducted an in-depth analysis in conjunction with the market positioning of the exchanges, such as user base, Liquidity, and coin listing strategies.

(II) Average value judgment of overall performance

To measure the market performance of the token, we calculated its percentage change relative to the initial price at the time of listing (Percentage Change), the formula is as follows:

Percentage Change = (Current Price - Initial Price) / Initial Price * 100%

Considering that extreme situations in the market may affect overall data trends, we have eliminated the top 10% and bottom 10% of extreme outliers to reduce the interference of incidental market events ( such as sudden positive news, market manipulation, and liquidity anomalies ) on statistical results. This processing method makes the calculation results more representative and can more accurately reflect the real market performance of new coins on different exchanges. Subsequently, we calculate the average price fluctuations of new coins on each exchange to measure the overall performance of new coin markets on different platforms.

(III)Coefficient of Variation Stability Assessment

Coefficient of Variation, CV( is an indicator that measures the relative volatility of data, and its calculation formula is:

CV = σ / μ * 100%

In this context, σ is the standard deviation and μ is the mean. The coefficient of variation is a dimensionless indicator that is not affected by the units of the data, making it suitable for comparing the volatility of different data sets. In market analysis, CV is mainly used to measure the relative volatility of prices or returns. In exchange or token price analysis, CV can reflect the relative stability of different markets, providing investors with a basis for risk assessment. The coefficient of variation is used here instead of the standard deviation because it has higher applicability compared to the standard deviation.

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2. Overview of Coin Listing Activities

) 2.1 Comparison Between Exchanges

(# 2.1.1 Number of coins and FDV preference

We found that: from the overall data, top exchanges ) such as a certain exchange, a certain exchange, and a certain exchange ### have generally fewer coins listed compared to other exchanges. This reflects the different influences of the exchange's position on coin listing styles.

In terms of the number of coins listed, some exchanges have stricter listing rules, resulting in fewer coins being listed but on a larger scale; whereas other exchanges like certain platforms list new assets more frequently, providing more trading opportunities. Data shows that the number of coins listed is roughly negatively correlated with FDV, meaning that exchanges that list more high FDV projects typically have fewer coins listed.

CEX adopts different strategies to determine the priority of listing coins, focusing on different fully diluted valuations ### FDV ( levels. Here we categorize based on the different FDVs of the projects to better understand the standards for listing coins on the exchange. When valuing tokens, we often consider MC and FDV, which together reflect the valuation, market size, and Liquidity of the tokens.

• MC only calculates the total value of currently circulating tokens, without considering the tokens that will be unlocked in the future, which may lead to an undervaluation of the project's true valuation, especially when most tokens have not yet been unlocked, which can easily cause misunderstanding.
• FDV is calculated based on the total supply of all tokens, which can more comprehensively reflect the potential valuation of the project and help investors assess future selling pressure risks and long-term value. For projects with low MC/FDV, the short-term reference value of FDV is limited, serving more as a long-term reference.

Therefore, when analyzing newly listed tokens, FDV is more indicative than Market Cap. Here we choose FDV as the standard.

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In addition, regarding the attitude towards initial projects, most exchanges usually adopt a balanced strategy, that is, taking into account both initial and non-initial projects, but generally have higher requirements for non-initial projects because initial projects tend to attract more new users. Additionally, two Korean exchanges, a certain trading platform and another trading platform, mainly focus on listing non-initial projects. This is because, compared to initial listings, non-initial listings can reduce screening risks and avoid the market fluctuations and initial liquidity issues that occur during the initial phase. At the same time, for project parties, compared to initial listings, they do not need to bear excessive market promotion and liquidity management pressure; non-initial listings can leverage existing market recognition to drive growth.

) 2.1.2 Track Preference

(# Certain exchange

In 2024, the number of Meme coins will still account for the largest proportion. Infra and DeFi projects have a relatively large proportion. The number of coins in the RWA and DePIN tracks on this exchange is relatively small, but their overall performance is quite good. Although this exchange is cautious in its coin selection in these areas, once launched, the market response is usually positive. In the second half of the year, this exchange's coin preference in the AI track is clearly tilted towards AI Agent tokens, which have the highest proportion among AI projects.

In 2024, the exchange platform shows a preference for its ecosystem. This indicates that the exchange platform is strengthening its support for its own on-chain ecosystem.

)# a certain exchange

On this trading platform, the number of coins is also dominated by Memes, accounting for about 25%. In comparison to other exchanges, there are more coins in the public chain and infrastructure track, with a total share reaching as high as 34%. This indicates that, in contrast, this trading platform will focus more on underlying technology innovation, scalability optimization, and sustainable development of the blockchain ecosystem in 2024.

In emerging sectors, this exchange has only listed 4 types of AI coins, 3 new coins in the RWA sector, and only 3 in the DePIN sector. This reflects the exchange's relatively cautious approach to its layout in relatively emerging sectors.

Some exchange

The biggest feature of this exchange in launching coins in 2024 is its broad coverage of tracks, with tokens generally performing well. In 2024, two types of tokens were launched on the DEX track. This indicates that the exchange still has considerable potential and room for development in listing popular assets, as many mainstream or high market cap tokens have yet to be launched, and further support may be expanded in the future. At the same time, this also reflects that the exchange has a relatively strict review process for listing coins and tends to carefully select assets with long-term potential.

On this exchange platform, the price increases of tokens across various tracks are quite prominent. Multiple track tokens have experienced significant price increases in a short period of time, reaching as high as 100% and even exceeding 150%. Some tokens have seen a price increase of up to 93.5% compared to the first day after being listed on the 30th day. This reflects the high level of recognition that Korean users have for the projects launched on this exchange platform.

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In addition, from the perspective of public chain ecology, certain public chains such as certain public chains are quite favored. We also observe that exchanges are gradually deepening their support for their own blockchain ecology. For example, certain exchange