Video | Weekly Market Analysis: How is the new bull run different when tech companies start hoarding Bitcoin?

Original text: The Round Trip

Organizer: Yuliya, PANews

In the era where cryptocurrency intersects with AI, the truly important stories are often hidden beyond the noise. To uncover these overlooked truths, PANONY has partnered with Web3.com Ventures to launch the English video program "The Round Trip." Hosted by John Scianna and Cassidy Huang, this episode will focus on the different driving forces behind Bitcoin's return to historical highs: a massive influx of institutional capital is replacing retail frenzy, while shaking confidence in the dollar and friendly regulatory signals are collectively giving rise to a "perfect storm."

*Note: This video was released on July 12, and some data may differ from current dynamics or information.

tl;dr

• Bitcoin Performance: Surpassed historical peak and continues to rise, dominated by non-retail investors, with institutional capital as the core driving force.

• US stocks linkage: Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit all-time highs, Dow Jones approaches peak, market enters a comprehensive risk-on mode.

• Policy Background: The United States passed the "America Competes Act", expanding fiscal spending and debt, weakening the long-term credit of the dollar (Moody's downgraded U.S. debt ratings in May).

• Sustainability of the upward trend: Due to corporate balance sheets and regulatory support, this rise is considered more stable than previous speculative cycles, but there may still be a pullback. The key lies in whether institutions can form price support.

• Corporate Holdings of Bitcoin: Software company Figma holds about 5% of its balance sheet in Bitcoin, motivated by diversification, appreciation potential, and brand differentiation; however, Bitcoin is not suitable for all companies, and considerations of risk tolerance and strategic objectives are necessary.

• Bitcoin Attributes: Bitcoin exhibits a hybrid nature, rising like tech stocks during periods of risk appetite, while possessing safe-haven qualities akin to gold during crises (such as the recent trade war). This duality can be both an advantage and a potential weakness.

• Potential risks: An unexpected rate hike by the Federal Reserve (JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated there is a 40-50% probability), tightening regulation, or geopolitical "black swan" events could interrupt the upward trend, but currently, these risks are not imminent and funds continue to flow in.

• Institutional capital influx:

  • 1. In June, over 250 companies announced increased holdings in Bitcoin, totaling 68,000 BTC.

• 2. Last week, 54 physical entities increased their holdings by 8,434 BTC, including design software giant Figma (holding a $70 million Bitcoin ETF, planning to purchase an additional $30 million).
• 3. Bitcoin ETF net inflow of 1.6 billion USD from July 6 to 11, including a single-day inflow of 1.18 billion USD on July 10 (the second highest in history).

• Macroeconomic positive factors

• 1. Dollar Trust Crisis: Fiscal expansion exacerbates inflation concerns, investors turn to scarce assets (Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins, scarcity stronger than gold).
• 2. Risk easing: Geopolitical conflicts are cooling down (the situation between Israel and Palestine is stabilizing, and there is no regime turmoil in Iran); inflation data from Europe and the US unexpectedly shows moderation.

• Regulatory shift towards friendliness

• 1. US "Crypto Week": The House is reviewing key legislation this week on stablecoin frameworks, market structure, and more.
• 2. Human Resources Signal: Former Bitfury executive Jonathan Gould appointed as head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), indicating a relaxation of policies.