Crypto Market Analysis Report for May 2025

1. Macroeconomic Situation

In May 2025, the US economy is at a critical turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the labor market remains resilient, monetary policy enters a wait-and-see period, and trade policies bring new uncertainties. On the fiscal side, market expectations are influenced by repurchase operations. Against this backdrop, the crypto market demonstrates strong resilience, and the global risk asset structure may undergo a new round of revaluation.

inflation trend

The annual CPI in April dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, indicating a continued easing of price pressures. The U.S. Treasury initiated a $40 billion Treasury bond repurchase operation, seen as a "quasi-QE" measure, aimed at releasing liquidity and refinancing at low interest rates. This has become an important force supporting the prices of risk assets.

job market

In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, far exceeding expectations, reflecting the resilience of the job market. Continued strong employment has eased recession fears but has also diminished the likelihood of multiple unexpected interest rate cuts this year.

monetary policy

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that the current monetary policy framework will be reevaluated and the "average inflation targeting" mechanism may be abandoned. In the future, the high interest rate maintenance period may be extended, and long-term interest rate increases may be controlled by increasing holdings of medium- and long-term Treasury bonds through balance sheet expansion. The policy tone will be more flexible, and there is no urgency for preemptive rate cuts in the short term.

Trade Policy and Global Economy

At the beginning of May, it was announced that tariffs would be imposed on EU goods. Although the implementation has been postponed, it has already affected market sentiment. The People's Bank of China has implemented a "reserve requirement ratio cut + interest rate cut" combined policy, which is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, and market expectations for the improvement of China-U.S. relations have warmed.

2. Crypto Market Overview

Trading Volume Analysis

As of May 27, the average daily trading volume in the market was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period. During the two phases from May 6 to 12 and from May 21 to 22, the trading volume surged significantly, with daily trading volume once exceeding $180 billion, and BTC prices breaking through $100,000 and $110,000 respectively.

market cap change

As of May 27, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $3.56 trillion, up 17.0% from last month. BTC market share is 62.6%, and ETH market share is 9.6%, with the latter increasing by 29.7% compared to the previous period. Since May 8, the total market capitalization has surpassed $3.3 trillion and has been steadily rising since then.

new popular token

Among the popular tokens launched in May, VC-backed projects dominate, including Layer 2 projects SOPH, B2, and others. In addition, USD1-related projects such as B, Lista, and Staketone have received widespread attention.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

ETF fund flow

In May, BTC ETF net inflows were $5.77 billion, and ETH ETF net inflows were $317 million. The price of BTC rose from $94,212 at the beginning of the month to $108,969, an increase of 13.5%; ETH rose from $1,794 to $2,635, an increase of 31.9%.

stablecoin market

In May, the total circulation of stablecoins increased by approximately $7.28 billion, mainly from USDT, USDE, and DAI.

4. Mainstream Currency Price Analysis

BTC

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain above $109,588, rising for seven consecutive weeks. Institutional investors continue to inject capital, with $2.9 billion inflows recorded in BTC ETP last week. The short-term key support level is the 20-day EMA($104,886).

ETH

Ethereum bounced from the 20-day EMA( at $2,425), with bulls attempting to break through the resistance level of $2,738. If successful, it may test $3,000. Support levels are at $2,323 and $2,111.

SOL

Solana found support at the 20-day EMA($169), and the bulls will attempt to break through $188 again. If successful, it may rise to $210 to $220. The support below is the 50-day SMA($151).

5. Hot Events

USD1 ecosystem

As of May 28, the market capitalization of USD1 has surpassed 2.1 billion USD, making it the seventh largest stablecoin. Its core advantage lies in the endorsement of the Trump family, positioning it mainly for institutional users. Several collaborative projects such as Buildon and Lista DAO have seen significant increases in token prices.

The rise of the Believe platform

The core token of the Believe platform, Launchcoin, reached a monthly high of $0.36, with a market capitalization nearing $310 million at one point. The platform emphasizes the concept of "social assetization," allowing users to issue tokens through the X platform. However, the excessive support for $YAPPER led to a crash that sparked controversy, resulting in a decline in the platform's popularity.

6. Future Outlook

Progress of the Stablecoin Bill

The "GENIUS Act" has entered the revision process and is expected to complete legislation in Q4 2024. The bill covers multiple aspects such as issuance qualifications, reserve requirements, and compliance obligations, aiming to strengthen the international position of US dollar-pegged stablecoins.

Ethereum ETF staking approval

The SEC has postponed its decision on the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF until June 1. Hong Kong has approved Ethereum ETF staking, and the U.S. is expected to follow suit. Once realized, this could drive a new wave of market enthusiasm for Ethereum and related assets such as Lido and Eigen.