The Telegram mini-game ecosystem is facing a winter, with a significant decline in MAU causing concern.

Recently, the user data of Telegram bots and Miniapps has shown a significant downward trend. Once, the explosive growth of Clicker games made Telegram Miniapps the focus of the blockchain field. However, behind the prosperity lies a hidden crisis.

Although the reliance on Clicker game support strategies has brought a surge in users and data in the short term, it has also sown the seeds of ecological imbalance. As user novelty fades, the homogenization and lack of depth in Clicker games gradually become apparent, and the entire ecosystem begins to suffer backlash.

Now, as the tide recedes, it is necessary to deeply reflect on strategic mistakes and seek new directions that can lead the next phase of ecological development.

1. The significant decline trend of MAU is hard to stop

From October 1 to October 31, monitoring of 820 Telegram projects showed that despite the cumulative monthly active users (MAU) reaching 879,922,503, this huge number conceals a concerning sharp decline.

In one month, the total MAU decreased by 295,971,112, which is a drop of 33%. This significant decline reveals a rapid decrease in user activity, reflecting that the entire ecosystem is experiencing unprecedented challenges.

Through the analysis of daily data, it was found that this decline shows a trend of magnification. Especially for large projects with over 5 million users, the initial decline in MAU was relatively slow, seemingly maintaining a certain level of stability. However, over time, the decline rate of these projects began to accelerate, even leading to a faster drop in the later stages, having a more profound impact on the overall decline of MAU.

This phenomenon indicates that even leading projects with a large user base struggle to withstand the impact of user attrition, revealing that deep-seated issues within the ecosystem urgently need to be addressed.

2. Structural Changes Behind Project Price Fluctuations

Among the 820 monitored projects, 249 projects showed an increase in October, while 491 projects experienced a decline.

It is clear from the analysis that the leading and historically established projects—represented by already issued tokens such as Hamster, Dogs, and Catizen—have experienced the most significant decline. These once-glorious star projects are now facing a substantial decrease in user activity and participation, reflecting a weakening of their growth momentum and a loss of user novelty.

At the same time, some emerging projects are providing positive growth, injecting new vitality into the market. However, in terms of quantity and growth rate, the increase of these new projects is far from offsetting the impact of declines in older projects.

In projects with a user base of less than 1 million, the number of projects that are declining still exceeds the number of projects that are rising. This indicates that even in the small and medium-sized project sector, the overall trend remains downward, and the market lacks sufficient new forces to reverse this situation.

This phenomenon highlights the structural issues present in the ecosystem: the appeal of older projects is gradually weakening, and the growth momentum of new projects is insufficient. The entire ecosystem urgently needs new stimulation and direction. How to provide more innovative and valuable applications while maintaining user stickiness has become an urgent topic.

3. Migration of Project Scale and Degradation of User Demand

In order to gain a deeper understanding of the changes in the ecosystem, the 820 monitored projects are categorized into several tiers based on Monthly Active Users (MAU): over 50 million, 10 million to 50 million, 5 million to 10 million, 2 million to 5 million, 500,000 to 2 million, 100,000 to 500,000, 20,000 to 100,000, and below 20,000.

By observing the changes of these projects in October, some trends worth noting have been discovered.

3.1 High-value projects flowing to lower tiers

• 50 million MAU tier: The number of projects decreased from 2 in the first week to 1 in the fourth week.

• 10 million to 50 million MAU range: The number of projects decreased from 18 in the first week to 15 in the fourth week.
• 5 million to 10 million MAU tier: The number of projects increased from 22 in the first week to 31 in the fourth week.

It is evident that top-tier projects are sliding down to lower tiers. The number of projects with over 50 million users has decreased from 2 to 1, indicating a significant drop in user activity for these flagship projects. This trend has led to a reduction in the number of high-tier projects and an increase in mid-tier projects, reflecting that the ecosystem is undergoing a top-down contraction.

The tier of medium-sized projects has明显降明显.

• 2 million to 5 million MAU tier: The number of projects increased from 35 in the first week to 41 in the fourth week, but the growth rate was relatively slow.
• 500,000-2,000,000 MAU range: The number of projects increased from 78 in Week 1 to 99 in Week 4.

Medium-sized projects have also not been spared from the impact of declining activity. The increase in the number of projects is mainly due to the downgrade of high-tier projects rather than their own growth. This indicates that medium-sized projects are under increased pressure to maintain their user base, with a noticeable phenomenon of user attrition.

Significant increase in the number of small projects

• 100,000-500,000 MAU tier: The number of projects increased from 142 in week 1 to 181 in week 4.
• 20,000-100,000 MAU and <20,000 MAU tiers: The number of projects in these two tiers has significantly increased. Among them, the number of projects in the <20,000 tier increased from 84 to 161.

The increase in the number of small projects is not a sign of ecological prosperity, but rather a result of the overall decline in projects. Projects at all levels are generally facing the problem of declining user activity, and the influx of new projects is not enough to make up for the loss of users, resulting in a lack of fresh blood in the ecosystem.

These data clearly reveal a comprehensive downward trend in the scale of ecosystem projects. From top projects to small-scale projects, none can avoid the impact of declining activity. This trend reflects the current ecosystem's lack of user stickiness and innovative driving force, urgently requiring new strategies and narratives to stimulate growth and regain user confidence.

4. The Dilemmas and Highlights of the OpenLeague Project

When discussing the development of various projects within the ecosystem, we noticed the OpenLeague project. Despite its certain level of recognition and user base in the market, it still cannot avoid the downward trend of users, and in some aspects, the decline is even more severe.

In addition, the project is mixed with various qualities, with some inconsistencies. However, it is worth noting that there are still one or two standout projects that have emerged, bringing hope to the entire ecosystem.

The downward trend for users is more evident.

Through data analysis of the OpenLeague project, we found that:

• Overall user activity has declined: Compared to other projects, OpenLeague has seen a larger drop in users, with the number of active users continuously decreasing. This may be related to the project's lack of sustained innovation and user engagement mechanisms.
• Increased competitive pressure: OpenLeague faces more intense competition among similar competitive and gaming projects. The emergence of new projects has diverted users, leading to a reduction in its market share.

Project quality is uneven.

• A mixed ecosystem: The quality of sub-projects and activities within OpenLeague varies, with some projects lacking clear positioning and high-quality content, making it difficult to attract and retain users.
• User experience needs improvement: Some projects have deficiencies in design and functionality, resulting in a poor experience for users during use, which further accelerates user attrition.

Highlights worth noting

Despite facing many challenges, there are still some outstanding projects in OpenLeague, such as "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon", which have shown deeper green on certain days and continue to rise.

5. When a whale falls, all things flourish or eventually return to zero

To gain a deeper understanding of the user dynamics of the project, we conducted a study on the project changes over a week from 30 days ago (September 24 - September 30) and the most recent week (October 25 - October 31).

We have defined the following indicators for two 7-day periods:

• M1 (User change from September 24 to September 30): During this period, M1 equals the number of valid users on the last day of the period (non-empty and greater than 10) minus the number of valid users on the first day of the period (non-empty and greater than 10).
• M2 (User change from October 25 to October 31): Similarly, M2 is equal to the number of valid users on the last day of this period (non-empty and greater than 10) minus the number of valid users on the first day of the period (non-empty and greater than 10).

In addition, we plotted a two-dimensional coordinate system with M1 as the horizontal axis and M2 as the vertical axis, and added a guide line x=-y to assist in the analysis.

Coordinate Quadrant Explanation

By plotting the data points of the project on a coordinate system, we can assess the user trends of the project based on the quadrant and position it occupies.

• First Quadrant (M1 > 0, M2 > 0): The project has shown user growth in both the week before 30 days ago and the most recent week. These projects may have sustained growth momentum, with user activity steadily increasing, making them worthy of attention and follow-up.

• Second Quadrant (M1<0, M2>0): The number of users for the project decreased a week before 30 days ago, but increased in the most recent week. If the data point is to the right of x=-y, it indicates that the project is beginning to turn around and has the potential to become a promising project. If it is to the left of x=-y, it suggests that the growth is insufficient to offset the previous decline, and the project may still be in an unstable state.

• Third quadrant (M1<0, M2<0): The projects have experienced a decline in users during both time periods. These projects show a clear downward trend, with continuous reduction in user activity, indicating a high risk of termination.

• Fourth Quadrant (M1>0, M2<0): The project grew in the week prior to 30 days ago, but declined in the most recent week. If the data point is to the left of x=-y, it indicates that the decline of the project has exceeded the previous growth, and users may be entering a downward spiral, which requires caution.

In addition, the projects with data points close to the origin and located near x = -y have M1 and M2 sums close to zero, indicating that the user changes of the projects lack real growth and may involve user inflation, with actual new users being relatively few.

We can simply summarize the above content:

• User growth projects (Quadrant One and Quadrant Two) are worth focusing on, as these projects demonstrate the potential for sustained growth or a rebound.
• Users of falling projects (the third and fourth quadrants) need to analyze the reasons for the decline in depth and adjust strategies in a timely manner to retain users.
• Suspected bot activity projects need to strengthen data monitoring to ensure the authenticity of the data and maintain the healthy development of the ecosystem.

6. Summary

Currently, Telegram mini-program applications are facing unprecedented difficulties, mainly focusing on two aspects: commercialization and content.

Commercialization aspects:

The current commercialization model mainly revolves around selling volume and listing tokens, with the core focus on monetizing traffic. However, the challenge at this stage is that sellers who list tokens and exchanges have already purchased a wave of traffic, making the new traffic less attractive to them. Meanwhile, a large number of tokens have been generated in the game, but there is a lack of specific application scenarios and consumption mechanisms. After players obtain tokens, their only option is to sell them.