US inflation data is mild, crypto market rises and then falls

The latest U.S. inflation data for May shows mild signs, bringing positive signals for risk assets. Specifically, the seasonally unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year rate is 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%; the month-on-month rate is only 0.1%, also lower than the expected 0.2%.

Core inflation data also shows a slowing trend: the annual rate is 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month is only 0.1%, far below the market expectation of 0.3%.

After the data was released, the crypto market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Bitcoin briefly approached $110,000 during the day, Ethereum rose 3% to $2,834, and XRP increased by 1.8% to $2.32. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remained around $3.4 trillion in the past 24 hours. According to data platforms, as of the writing of this article, the total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours reached $300 million, of which approximately $100 million was Ethereum and about $37 million was Bitcoin.

Large Transfer Activity

As Bitcoin price fluctuates, on-chain data shows an increase in large transfer activity.

On June 11, the on-chain monitoring platform discovered a large influx of Bitcoin into a certain American crypto exchange. Data shows that within approximately two hours, several anonymous large holders transferred over 3,165 Bitcoin (worth over $347 million) to the exchange through multiple transactions.

The largest transaction involved 738 BTC, and several other transactions were also large transfers from anonymous wallets. Notably, 510 BTC (worth approximately $56.1 million) were transferred from a well-known crypto trading company to the institutional account of this exchange, which may indicate that large holders are attempting to sell tokens or rebalance their portfolios. Considering the large volume of these transfers, their high frequency, and the involvement of large trading companies, it is likely the operations of institutional investors.

Affected by these large transfers, Bitcoin has fallen below the $110,000 mark at the opening of the day, fluctuating around $108,677 at the time of writing.

Market Analysis

Data shows that the current funding rate of the Bitcoin contract market remains stable or at a low level.

This often indicates that the current rebound is mainly driven by investors actually purchasing spot, rather than by high-leverage contract trading. In a situation where high-leverage positions do not dominate the market, the risk of triggering large-scale sell-offs and sharp falls is lower, thus the likelihood of prices continuing to rise is greater.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin opened with a gap up of about 1% yesterday, priced around 110,375 points. After opening, it fluctuated around that price for about 3 hours, then slowly declined, reaching an intraday low of 108,720 points around 11:33. At around 2:02 PM, the price quickly surged, ultimately closing near 110,455 points. That day formed a bullish doji candlestick with a longer lower shadow, with a rise of approximately 1.02%.

The daily trading channel model shows that Bitcoin is currently operating above the protective channel, indicating that the medium-term trend remains strong. The sentiment indicator is also slowly recovering alongside the price increase, reflecting that market confidence is recovering.

From the 1-hour candlestick chart, the short-term price is running above the bullish-bearish boundary line, and the sentiment indicator is in a high zone, about to form a top divergence pattern. This means that the probability of increased market volatility in the short term is relatively high, and it may pull back to the 108,720 point (intraday low), so it is essential to pay close attention to whether this low point will be broken.

Comprehensive analysis suggests that the probability of market fluctuations has increased in the short term, with a focus on whether the 108,720 point level will be broken. From a daily perspective, Bitcoin is operating above the protective channel, and the medium-term bullish trend can still be sustained.