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- 📢 Gate has released its latest Proof of Reserves report!
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Fed latency rate cut expectations Bitcoin Ethereum Options large-scale expiration attracts follow
The Fed's chance of cutting interest rates in July is slim, and the market is focusing on important levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Market Observation
The current market focus is mainly on the Fed's interest rate policy. Although recent inflation data shows signs of cooling, several Fed officials, including the chair, have stated that more time is needed to observe and confirm that price increases do not evolve into persistent inflation, thus maintaining a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts at the July meeting. Most opinions lean towards considering rate cuts in the fall of this year or later. This caution stems from a reliance on future data and a prudent assessment of external factors. Although there are signs of a slowdown in the labor market, it has not yet shown clear weakness, which supports the Fed's patience.
On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher, led by technology stocks and bank stocks. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed close to historic highs. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 7-year Treasury yield falling below 4%. The U.S. dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates at least twice this year have strengthened.
In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government recently issued a new declaration on the development policy of digital assets. The policy clearly states that a licensing system for stablecoins will be implemented by 2025, promoting the tokenization of real-world assets, and providing tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds to attract international capital. By improving the regulatory framework, enhancing asset transparency, and increasing tax competitiveness, Hong Kong is gradually becoming a new hub for the global digital economy.
Bitcoin's price has recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the momentum has slowed down. Today marks the largest expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year, with a notional value of $15 billion for Bitcoin options and a maximum pain point at $102,000; the notional value for Ethereum options is $2.3 billion, with a maximum pain point at $2,200, which could exacerbate short-term volatility.
Analysis shows that the price of Bitcoin is currently mainly driven by macro news, with strong support in the range of 93,000 to 100,000 dollars. However, both on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are on a declining trend, and caution is rising in the futures market, indicating that the market lacks the momentum to break new highs before demand recovers. If the price breaks below this range, it may trigger a deeper correction. The delay in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations is also one of the important reasons for the stagnation of Bitcoin prices.
Multiple analysts believe that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and turn it into support in order to enter a new price discovery phase and achieve higher targets. Currently, the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) of Bitcoin is 2.22, which is below the historically high valuation range, indicating that there is still room for growth. If MVRV momentum strengthens, along with support from capital inflows, the price of Bitcoin may break through the current high of $112,000 and even reach above $165,000.
For Ethereum, analysis indicates that $2200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to trigger a stronger rebound. In addition, on-chain market activity has cooled, and recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the United States directed the acceptance of cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgage assets, promoting an "home-buying narrative" on-chain. The market value of associated Meme tokens has experienced significant fluctuations.
Key Data (As of June 27, 12:00 HKT)
ETF Flows (as of June 26)
Today's Outlook
Top 500 largest market cap gains today: Dohrnii (DHN) up 160.89%, Levana Protocol (LVN) up 70.88%, AI Companions (AIC) up 32.35%, Euler (EUL) up 20.79%, Dog (Bitcoin) (DOG) up 9.86%.
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