Solana Spot ETF approval countdown begins, may launch in July

Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requested several institutions to resubmit revised S-1 filings for the Solana Spot ETF within 7 days, mainly involving adjustments to the descriptions of "physical redemption mechanisms" and "staking terms." This move has been interpreted by the market as a positive shift in regulatory attitude, which subsequently triggered optimistic sentiment among investors, leading to an increase in SOL prices, which briefly surpassed $165, with a daily increase of 5%.

Market attention has shifted from whether the ETF can be approved to when it will be launched and by whom. The SEC has requested that applicants clarify the details of the staking mechanism in their documents, indicating that the regulatory body may be attempting to incorporate PoS logic into the regulatory framework. More notably, the SEC has committed to completing its review feedback within 30 days, which means that the Solana Spot ETF could be approved as early as mid-July.

Industry experts expect that the Solana ETF is likely to receive final approval within the next three to five weeks. James Seyffart from Bloomberg Industry Research believes it could be approved this year, possibly as early as July. Eric Balchunas increased the chances of SOL ETF approval from 70% to 90%, stating: "Get ready for a potential altcoin ETF summer, Solana may lead the way."

Currently, seven asset management companies have submitted applications for the Solana ETF, including VanEck, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity. Among them, Grayscale plans to convert its existing SOL trust product into a Spot ETF.

If the SOL ETF is approved, its price performance may be influenced by various factors. Referring to the experience of Bitcoin ETFs, a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" situation may occur in the short term. According to the GSR model prediction, if the capital inflow for the SOL ETF is 5% of that of the BTC ETF, its price may rise from the current $160 to a range of $400-500. In a more optimistic scenario, if the capital inflow accounts for 14%, the price may break through $800.

However, SOL also faces some potential risks. The low cost for early investors may lead to the ETF becoming an exit node. Additionally, the high staking rate of SOL (over 65%) and the uncertainty of whether the ETF will allow staking shares may affect the attractiveness of the ETF. Furthermore, after the ETF becomes a mainstream funding channel, on-chain DEXs and the DeFi ecosystem may face liquidity migration risks.

Overall, the approval of the Solana Spot ETF has entered the final stage, which is not only the birth of a product but also a comprehensive test of public chain competition, the PoS consensus mechanism, and DeFi applications. While investors pay attention to short-term price fluctuations, they should also closely monitor whether the ETF's structural design can address staking issues and whether the on-chain ecosystem can accommodate the new traffic and transaction demands.