US stocks closed higher across the board, Ethereum has been fluctuating for 25 days and may replicate the mid-2021 market trend.

Market Observation

U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, with technology stocks performing particularly well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased for the fourth consecutive trading day, as one tech giant's market capitalization once again surpassed another, reclaiming its position as the world's most valuable publicly traded company, with a current market cap of $3.45 trillion. Stocks related to stablecoins in Hong Kong continued to strengthen, with several related companies' stock prices soaring.

An economist predicts that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until December, but at that time, it may choose to cut rates significantly by 50 basis points. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be one-off and will not continue to affect the economy. In addition, the OECD has sharply lowered its growth forecast for the US economy to 1.6% and warned that the trade policies of a certain political figure are dragging down global economic development. Investors are closely watching the May employment report to be released this Friday to assess the economic situation.

An analyst stated that 2025 will be a key turning point for generative AI, transitioning from technological breakthroughs to widespread applications. Currently, AI is mainly used in the financial sector for traditional asset management and quantitative trading, but it is expected to better adapt to the digital asset market in the future through optimization of market-making strategies. In addition, building AI-enabled Web3 infrastructure, such as smart contract security audits and digital content assetization, will promote the collaborative development of AI and the Web3 ecosystem.

The Bitcoin market is experiencing intensified fluctuations, showing a short-term trend of oscillating upwards. In terms of the political environment, both Poland and South Korea have elected presidents who support cryptocurrencies. Although the market news is mostly positive, Bitcoin prices have not seen a significant rise. The head of digital asset research at a certain bank has issued a warning that currently, 61 listed companies collectively hold 673,800 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.2% of the total supply. If the price of Bitcoin falls below 22% of these companies' average purchase price, it may trigger forced sell-offs. Referencing a case from 2022, when a company sold 7,202 Bitcoins after the price dropped below their cost by 22%, if Bitcoin falls below $90,000, about half of the companies' holdings may face the risk of losses. This indicates that although the influx of corporate holdings has increased buying pressure, it also lays the groundwork for potential sell-off risks.

Ethereum has shown relatively stable performance, oscillating around $2600 for 25 days. The U.S. Ethereum ETF has increased its holdings for 12 consecutive days, with a certain asset management company owning approximately $4 billion in ETH through the ETF. Analysis indicates that Ethereum may be entering a critical turning point, facing a choice between upward or downward movement. On-chain data shows that a suspected whale or institution acquired 108,278 Ether (approximately $283 million) through OTC methods. An OTC wallet of a certain digital asset company has withdrawn 89,000 ETH (approximately $234 million) from exchanges in the past 12 hours and subsequently transferred a total of 108,278 ETH to a designated address. An analyst pointed out that Ethereum is striving to maintain $2500 as a support level and solidify it as the low point of the macro range between $2500 and $4000. The current trend resembles a certain period in mid-2021; if successful, Ethereum may enter a new round of range-bound trading.

A research institution pointed out that despite Bitcoin continuously breaking historical highs and attracting institutional funds, the altcoin market remains stagnant, with ongoing token unlocks and a lack of new narratives becoming bottlenecks for development. Solana tokens have recently performed poorly, oscillating around $150. Its meme coin platform plans to raise $1 billion through a token sale, with a valuation of $4 billion. Although the official release time has not yet been confirmed, the platform's social media accounts hinted that it might go live within two weeks, which could lead to capital outflow pressures on the entire Solana ecosystem. Notably, early this morning, there were reports that a political figure would launch a branded crypto wallet and trading application, encouraging supporters to buy meme coins. This news caused a brief 40% rise in the token of a certain platform. However, related parties later denied any association with the project, causing the token to pull back nearly 20% from its peak.

Key Data (As of June 4, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $105,723 (Year-to-date +12.73%), Daily spot trading volume $25.243 billion
• Ethereum: $2,616.39 (Year-to-date -21.69%), daily spot trading volume is $14.58 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 57 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 2.63 sat/vB ETH: 4.36 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 63.1%, Ether 9.6%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0247
• Sector fluctuations: AI fell by 2.1%; Meme fell by 1.67%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,138 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of 148 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 25.52 million USD, ETH liquidations of 35.96 million USD, and SOL liquidations of 8.75 million USD.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Line of the Channel (106908.13 USD), Lower Line of the Channel (104791.13 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel (2588.05 USD), lower line of the channel (2536.80 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flows (as of June 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$378 million (ending a 3-day outflow)
• Ethereum ETF: +$109 million (net inflow for 12 consecutive days)

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will launch Lagrange (LA)
• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts on June 5.
• Multiple projects will unlock tokens in the near future.
• The US May ADP employment figures and initial unemployment claims will be announced soon.

Top 500 largest market cap rises today: 0×0.ai (0×0) rose 67.69%, Acet (ACT) rose 28.59%, Alchemist AI (ALCH) rose 23.39%, Magic Eden (ME) rose 22.03%, Animecoin (ANIME) rose 21.70%.

Hot News

• Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $109 million yesterday, marking the 12th consecutive day of net inflows.
• It is suspected that a certain institution purchased over 100,000 ETH through OTC and now holds nearly 140,000 ETH.
• A certain asset management company's Bitcoin spot ETF has entered the top 25 ETFs in the United States, with assets reaching $72.4 billion in just 1.4 years since its establishment.
• A certain project party transferred 150 million tokens, and sent 20 million of them to a specified address.
• Spanish coffee chain Vanadi plans to invest over 1.1 billion USD to acquire Bitcoin, transforming into a "Bitcoin-first" company.
• A certain political figure's family denies involvement in a specific wallet project, and the related platform responds that it is an official collaboration.
• CEO of a certain company: Sold off cryptocurrency at the end of last year, making a profit of 570 million yuan, with 80% distributed as dividends to shareholders.
• A stablecoin issuer transferred over 37,000 BTC to an institution, worth nearly 4 billion USD.
• The Sonic airdrop will start in June, with 25% released immediately and the remaining 75% unlocked linearly in the form of NFTs.
• The CEO of a certain project has stepped down, and a former executive of a certain exchange has taken over.
• Strategy plans to issue 2.5 million shares of "Stride" preferred stock to increase its Bitcoin holdings.
• Informed sources: A certain project plans to raise $1 billion through a token sale, with a valuation of $4 billion.
• Ethereum co-founder says they are in talks with sovereign wealth funds for infrastructure cooperation