Bitcoin

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin ETFs added +10.9K BTC in two days, led by Fidelity and BlackRock.
• Retail transfer volumes rebounded after weeks of negative demand.
• Open interest and greed signals hint at near-term market overheating.

Bitcoin rebounded to $119,075 after yesterday’s pullback, while BTC dominance briefly fell below 60%. Ethereum gained 6% on continued ETF inflows, with the Altcoin Index climbing to 39. According to Coinglass, total crypto market cap reached $3.92 trillion with $348 million in liquidations.

On Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded one of the highest daily inflows in three months, totaling +7,500 BTC. On Tuesday, institutions increased exposure with an additional +3,400 BTC, bringing the two-day total to 10,900 BTC. Outflows were nearly zero, signaling growing confidence among major players.

BTC US Spot ETF Flows | Source : glassnodeFidelity and BlackRock led the accumulation, while Ark and Bitwise also saw positive flows. Data from Glassnode shows coordinated buying pressure during a price correction. Institutions continued accumulating despite market fear and short-term volatility.

Retail Demand Recovers as Risk Appetite Grows

Retail investors have shown early signs of a return after weeks of retreat. Data from CryptoQuant shows the 30-day change in demand for transfers under $10,000 has moved above zero. This shift indicates renewed interest in low-cap purchases and small wallet accumulation.

Bitcoin Retail Investor Volume | Source : CryptoQuantAs Bitcoin holds $118K, positive retail momentum supports the current rally. The rising retail interest contrasts with previous downturns, where smaller transactions dropped sharply

Altcoin strength continues, supported by the Ethereum rally and steady demand for DeFi and AI tokens. Ethereum’s price rose to $3,157, posting a 6.09% gain in 24 hours. Market breadth is improving, though dominance remains in Bitcoin’s favour for now.

Market Caution Grows as Sentiment and OI Surge

Despite bullish flows, several warning signals have emerged across technical indicators. Hyblock data shows cumulative open interest exceeding 2.2 billion, with the Fear & Greed Index at 70, reflecting “Greed.” Historically, these conditions align with local tops or consolidation phases.

Bitcoin Cumulative Open Interest | Source : HyblockBright red signals on the OI chart indicate zones of extreme positioning paired with high sentiment. According to Hyblock Capital, these conditions historically align with local market tops

Meanwhile, macro indicators show this bull market is not driven by money supply expansion like in past cycles. Coinvo’s M2 analysis shows only 12.1% global M2 growth, compared to 33% during the 2018–2021 cycle. This suggests fundamental drivers like ETF adoption and regulatory clarity are taking the lead.

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