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Recently, the Crypto Assets market has shown some trends worth following. The altcoin prosperity index has remained above 90 for 5 consecutive days, which may indicate that we are in the final stage of this bull run.
Looking back at this bull run, it can be roughly divided into three phases: the first phase from early October 2023 to the end of March 2024; the second phase from September to December 2024; and the third phase starting with a significant rise in June 2025.
The market is currently showing a trend of Bitcoin and alts taking turns leading the rally. From May to June, it was primarily a solo performance by Bitcoin, but starting from early July, Bitcoin and alts began to alternately drive the market's upward spiral. According to current assessments, the peak of this bull run may occur between February and April 2025, possibly extending to mid to late October at the latest, and if the market trend accelerates, it could peak in early September.
It is worth noting that even after the bull run ends, Bitcoin's decline may not be as severe as in the past. This is because Bitcoin has become an important component of Wall Street's large funds, institutional ETFs, publicly traded companies, and even some small and medium-sized countries' foreign exchange reserves. An increasing number of wealthy individuals and businesses also view it as an asset allocation option, appreciating its property of value preservation and appreciation.
However, the situation for alts may not be very optimistic. Once a downward trend is established, the main funds behind various coins are likely to sell off on a large scale, with a significant portion of the funds potentially shifting to Bitcoin to avoid the potential risks of stablecoins like USDT.
For institutional investors and experienced participants, holding both Bitcoin and USDT during a bear market may be a common strategy, while some staunch believers may always hold Bitcoin throughout the bull run and bear cycle.
Overall, with the maturity of the market and increased institutional participation, Bitcoin's position is continuously being consolidated, while the volatility of the altcoin market may become more pronounced. Investors need to closely follow market trends and reasonably allocate their assets to respond to possible market changes.