#贸易战缓和# The US-China trade agreement reaches a deal to release liquidity, and the encryption market迎来结构性回暖.

This agreement not only alleviates the long-standing pressure of trade friction that has troubled the market but also injects liquidity and confidence into the encryption market through tariff reductions and the establishment of a cooperation framework. The prices of mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are fluctuating upwards, demonstrating a trend towards institutionalization and compliance in market structure, while breakthroughs in Web3 ecosystem technology resonate with policy support.
The core of this China-US trade agreement lies in the reduction of tariffs and the establishment of a framework for technological cooperation.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury stated that the agreement will reduce bilateral trade barriers and promote the efficiency of global supply chains. This achievement directly alleviates market concerns over geopolitical conflicts, leading to a temporary weakening of the dollar index and a rebound in global capital risk appetite.
Historical data shows that improvements in Sino-U.S. relations usually lead to capital inflows into high-volatility assets, and the encryption market, as a typical non-sovereign asset, has become an important beneficiary during liquidity easing cycles. The recent "double reduction" policy (0.5% reserve requirement cut, 0.1% interest rate cut) implemented by the People's Bank of China has released over 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, further strengthening this trend. The synchronized easing of policies between China and the U.S. has renewed attention on the anti-inflation properties of encryption assets such as Bitcoin, with institutional investors accelerating their layout through compliant channels like spot ETFs.
The price of Bitcoin has recently stabilized in the range of $95,000 to $104,000, with a significant improvement in market structure. Institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have absorbed over $30 billion in funds through spot ETFs, and on-chain data shows that the proportion of spot holdings has risen to 67%, indicating a shift in market dominance from retail speculation to institutional long-term allocation.
At the same time, the encryption regulatory framework in multiple states in the United States is rapidly taking shape: New Hampshire is incorporating Bitcoin into the state reserve system, Texas is relaxing standards for mining operations, and the draft of the "Digital Asset Innovation Act" has been made public at the federal level, further clearing compliance hurdles.
The policy certainty brought by trade agreements, combined with liquidity easing, is pushing the Web3 ecosystem into a critical stage of technological commercialization:
1. Modular Blockchain: The fractal scaling solution launched by Celestia and Avalanche has supported tens of millions of TPS scenarios, significantly reducing on-chain transaction costs;
2. Privacy Computing: Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP) technology has surpassed a 45% market share in the Ethereum ecosystem, and ZKRollups have become the mainstream scaling solution.
3. Cross-border Payments: The real-time settlement system based on Stablecoin has reduced the remittance costs for small and medium-sized enterprises in Southeast Asia from 6.8% to 1.2%, with the related transaction scale exceeding one trillion dollars.
Risks and opportunities coexist: short-term fluctuations do not change long-term logic.
Despite the high market sentiment, three types of risks should be noted:
1. Policy Repetition: If the Federal Reserve restarts interest rate hikes due to a rebound in inflation, it may trigger a liquidity withdrawal (historical backtesting shows that a 100BP rate hike could lead to a 25% shrinkage in market value);
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: The implementation of the EU MiCA regulations may increase compliance costs, putting pressure on some projects to adjust.
3. Technical Security: In the first half of 2025, on-chain attack incidents resulted in losses of $920 million, and vulnerabilities in smart contracts remain a potential threat.
In conclusion, the signing of the Sino-US trade agreement marks a phase of easing in the global macro environment, providing the encryption market with dual support from liquidity and policy. In the short term, Bitcoin's price may remain volatile at a high level, and the trend towards institutionalization will reduce irrational fluctuations in the market.
In the long term, the technological implementation and compliance process of the Web3 ecosystem are the keys to whether the industry can navigate through cycles. Investors should focus on core tracks such as modular infrastructure, privacy computing, and cross-border payments, seizing structural opportunities under the premise of controllable risks.