100,000 USD is just the starting point? Miner Holdings hit a new cycle low + China-US tariff exemption, Bitcoin enters a frenzy mode.

The global market is at a dual Node of the Bitcoin Halving cycle and the rebalancing of trade relations, with Liquidity reconstruction possibly driving asset repricing.

Written by: Lawrence, Mars Finance

Part One: Bitcoin miner selling pressure drops to the lowest since 2024 - Is the market gearing up for new highs?

1. Change in Miner Behavior: From Selling to Holding

According to the latest data from the cryptocurrency analysis platform Alphractal, the Bitcoin miner sell pressure indicator (which measures the ratio of outflow to reserves over a 30-day period) has fallen below the lower bound, reaching its lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the previous pattern of "selling to cover operational costs" to strategic accumulation.

This contrasts sharply with the predicament of miners' income halving after the 2024 Halving (when the daily selling volume of miners increased from 900 coins to 1200 coins), but the current changes in the market environment have prompted miners to adjust their strategies:

• Profit expectations drive accumulation: As the Bitcoin price recently surpassed $100,000 and approached historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bitcoin to wait for higher returns rather than cashing out in the short term.
• Structural optimization of the industry: The large-scale development of mining led by listed companies (such as Bitfarms, CleanSpark) has reduced the exit risk of inefficient miners, and the increased industry concentration has alleviated selling pressure.
• Historical Experience Reference: In past cycles, excessive leverage and long-term holding by miners led to liquidity crises (such as the bear market in 2018), and now there is more emphasis on short-term financial stability.

​​2. Market Resilience Revealed by On-Chain Data​​

The miner selling pressure indicator from Alphractal shows that the current market structure is completely different from the "panic selling" at the beginning of 2024:

• Long-term holders dominate: Currently, over 80% of Bitcoin is held for more than 6 months, significantly lower than the dominance ratio of short-term holders at historical cycle peaks, providing stable support for the price.
• Exchange reserves hit a new low: Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating that the market is in a "high-speed accumulation phase," with selling pressure dispersed by over-the-counter trading or institutional holdings.
• Derivatives Market Risk: Although the spot market is stable, there are a large number of high-leverage long positions in the range of $100,000 to $110,000, and any price fluctuations could trigger a wave of liquidations worth billions of dollars.

3. Price Trends and Future Expectations

As of May 12, 2025, the price of Bitcoin is $104,250, with a 24-hour increase of 1% and a cumulative rise of over 30% in the past month. The focus of the market's divergence on the subsequent trend is:

• Technical signal: RSI (75) indicates overbought, but MACD continues to rise; key support level of $10,000 may trigger short-term holders to sell if breached.
• Macroeconomic variables impact: The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut (if the cut exceeds 100 basis points in 2025) may provide a "Davis Double Play" opportunity for Bitcoin, but the risk of stagflation may weaken its hedging properties.
• Miner Behavior Dynamics: If the price breaks through 110,000 USD, miner selling pressure may increase, but the current low selling levels suggest the market may enter a "calm upward phase."

Part Two: Market Concerns Behind the "Substantial Progress" of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement

1. White House Statement and Agreement Outline

On May 11, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott P. Basset and Trade Representative Jamison Greer jointly announced that substantial progress had been made in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with both sides reaching a principled consensus in the following areas:

• Market Access: China has committed to expanding imports of U.S. agricultural products, and the tariff exemptions for some U.S. technology products have been extended.
• Intellectual Property Protection: Establish cross-border law enforcement cooperation mechanisms to reduce technology transfer barriers.
• Dispute Resolution Mechanism: Establish a permanent consultation platform to prevent the escalation of trade frictions.

2. Market Reaction and Concerns

Despite the official release of positive signals, the lack of protocol details has led investors to be cautiously optimistic:

• Residual uncertainty: The volatility of Trump administration policies (such as the 2024 electronic tariff exemption "one-day tour") undermines market confidence, and risk assets remain under pressure before the agreement is finalized.
• Structural contradictions unresolved: The competitive policies of China and the United States in areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (e.g., "Trade War 2.0") may continue through non-tariff means.
• Liquidity impact differentiation: If the protocol drives the US Dollar Index (DXY) to retreat, Bitcoin may benefit from the "anti-fiat" narrative restarting; however, if negotiations break down causing risk-averse demand, gold may divert funds.

3. The Chain Reaction of the Global Economy

The systematic impacts that may arise from the easing of Sino-US trade tensions include:

• Reshaping the supply chain: The protocol may accelerate the trend of "nearshoring", enhancing Mexico and Southeast Asia's status as manufacturing hubs, with a growing demand for cross-border cryptocurrency payments.
• Inflation relief expectations: Tariff reductions are expected to alleviate pressure on the US CPI, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, indirectly benefiting risk assets.
• Geopolitical risk transfer: If cooperation between China and the United States strengthens, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East situation may become new sources of market volatility.

Part Three: Market Games and Investment Strategies Under the Intertwined Dual Main Lines

1. The Resonance of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Policies

• Interest Rate Sensitivity and Correlation: The correlation of Bitcoin with the Nasdaq Index (0.78) indicates that it has not yet detached from the traditional risk asset framework. If the China-U.S. trade agreement boosts tech stocks, Bitcoin may benefit simultaneously.
• Miner behavior as a leading indicator: Historical data shows that after the miner selling pressure hits the bottom, Bitcoin often enters an upward cycle (such as the bull market after the miner capitulation in 2023), and the current low selling levels may indicate a similar trend.

2. Risk and Opportunity Assessment

• Short-term volatility risk: The accumulation of leverage in Bitcoin derivatives and the unclear details of the China-US agreement may trigger price fluctuations, with the support level at $10,000 becoming a dividing line for bulls and bears.
• Long-term narrative strengthening: The average daily accumulation of Bitcoin ETF (800 coins) remains higher than the miner output (450 coins), with the institutional process offsetting some market impacts.

Conclusion: Certain Logic in a Complex Market

In May 2025, the global market is at the dual nodes of the Bitcoin "Halving cycle" and the rebalancing of Sino-American "trade relations." The low selling pressure from miners and the progress of agreements from the White House seem independent, but they actually point to a core proposition: asset repricing under liquidity reconstruction. Whether Bitcoin breaks its previous high or a Sino-American agreement is reached, the market will ultimately validate a truth – in the collision of macro iron curtains and crypto narratives, only assets that possess both resilience and efficiency can achieve long-term victory.