Bitcoin’s surge makes our $150,000 prediction look conservative

By Nigel Green, deVere Group CEO and Founder

When we said back in January that Bitcoin was headed to $150,000 before year-end, it was seen by many as bold. Now, it’s beginning to look like we were being modest.

Bitcoin smashing through $100,000 this week isn’t just a psychological milestone—it’s a signal that the momentum behind digital assets is accelerating faster than even the most optimistic bulls had forecast. And the timing is no accident. It comes as trade diplomacy enters a crucial phase, with developments that could turbocharge risk appetite across asset classes, especially crypto.

President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer just inked a sweeping new trade agreement—the first since Trump’s return to the White House. More importantly, it’s a harbinger of broader shifts. This weekend’s high-level trade talks in Geneva are expected to include proposals to slash the US’s punitive tariffs on Chinese goods by more than half. That would mark a dramatic de-escalation of trade hostilities—and global markets are watching closely.

If those talks succeed, it won't just be stocks that rally. Bitcoin is poised to lead.

The link between easing trade tensions and crypto prices might not be obvious at first glance. But there’s a clear logic: smoother global trade supports economic expansion, reduces systemic risk, and triggers capital inflows into risk-on assets. For digital assets, which thrive on macro optimism and institutional participation, it’s a powerful mix.

Bitcoin’s rebound from under $75,000 just weeks ago to over $101,000 today underscores this. Risk appetite has returned with force, and long-term holders are refusing to budge. Institutional flows are ramping up again, spurred by the expansion of Bitcoin ETF allocations, continued adoption from family offices and sovereign wealth funds, and a growing sense that Trump’s White House is not just tolerating crypto—but accelerating its legitimacy.

Investors are also betting that the Geneva trade talks could mark a turning point for broader geopolitical stability. That matters. Much of the downward pressure on crypto earlier this year came from the reintroduction of sweeping tariffs, which created uncertainty and drove capital toward safer assets. As soon as those fears began to ease—helped by the US-UK deal and Trump’s latest comments suggesting flexibility on China—Bitcoin came roaring back.

This is precisely the type of dynamic that reinforces our conviction in a $150,000 price by year-end.

The market is moving past its hangover from April’s tariff shocks and beginning to price in a scenario where Trump’s administration turns trade reform from a blunt weapon into a strategic tool. His recent nods to pro-crypto regulation, although unevenly delivered, are being interpreted as a net positive by the market. Combine that with easing US-China tensions and a synchronized effort by central banks to boost liquidity, and it becomes clear: the setup for Bitcoin is improving by the week.

We’re also seeing encouraging signs from the demand side. Bitcoin ETFs in the US are seeing renewed inflows after a brief pause in March. Trading volumes are climbing, and blockchain data shows that long-term wallet addresses continue to accumulate rather than distribute. Institutional confidence hasn’t been shaken—it’s deepening.

And this is before we get to any potential policy wins from the Trump administration on crypto infrastructure, taxation, or regulatory clarity—any one of which could act as a powerful accelerant to sentiment.

Of course, the Geneva talks could still falter. But markets are increasingly betting on a constructive outcome. And if Trump does deliver a scaled-back tariff regime, the ripple effect on crypto could be enormous.

This is the moment to double down on that January prediction. Everything we expected—monetary loosening, rising institutional exposure, and a geopolitical climate moving from confrontation to negotiation—is unfolding.

The market has flipped. The wall of worry that kept Bitcoin in check has started to crumble. The road to $150,000 is no longer a speculative leap. It’s a scenario that’s quickly becoming consensus.

And in markets, when consensus begins to align with conviction, the results can be explosive.