XRP profit pullback and delayed ETF approval have put pressure on prices, while Bitcoin Whales' selling triggered a flash crash: October is a key window, and the market is following new developments in the standardized ETF framework.

XRP is facing profit-taking by investors after a pullback over the weekend, and the SEC may delay the approval of the spot ETF until October. Although the legal obstacles in the Ripple case have been cleared, the establishment of a standardized encryption ETF framework has become the new focus of the market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has encountered a flash fall, with large-scale dumping by whales and continuous outflows of ETF funds intensifying fluctuations. This article integrates policy expectations, capital trends, and technical aspects to analyze the key driving factors for the short-term trends of XRP and BTC, and provides investors with long and short scenario forecasts and observation strategies.

[XRP profit taking combined with ETF approval delays, price under pressure and falling back]

As the market focus shifts from the Ripple case ruling to the Spot ETF applications, XRP is facing selling pressure from investors taking profits after a pullback over the weekend.

Despite the ruling on the SEC vs. Ripple case on August 22, multiple ETF issuers quickly submitted S-1 amendment filings, sparking optimistic expectations in the market for the imminent approval of the XRP Spot ETF. However, the SEC is likely to delay its decision until the deadline in October. Analysts point out that although legal hurdles have been cleared and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange has clearly stated that "there are currently no obstacles," the SEC's recent approval of Bitwise and Grayscale's cryptocurrency index funds containing XRP was immediately followed by a suspension order, intended to buy time for a unified cryptocurrency ETF framework.

[The standardized encryption ETF framework may open the wave of altcoin ETFs]

Industry-leading ETF experts believe that once the framework is implemented, it will greatly accelerate the listing process of crypto spot ETFs and may trigger a surge in institutional demand for altcoins. Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, stated, "Once the framework is launched, the floodgates will open, and we will see a large number of crypto ETFs approved for listing." It is worth noting that Cboe, Nasdaq, and the New York Stock Exchange submitted a 19b-4 filing in July, requesting to amend rules to allow the listing of commodity trust shares under a standardized framework, aligning with the SEC's intention to simplify the approval process. If these filings are approved, the issuance of XRP spot ETF will be imminent and may attract a significant influx of institutional capital.

[XRP Price Outlook: The Key to the Bull-Bear Battle Lies in ETF Progress and Macroeconomic Policies]

The short-term trend of XRP depends on several catalysts: the dynamics of the Spot ETF, the progress of various central banks adopting XRP as a reserve asset, the outcome of Ripple's application for a US banking license, SWIFT-related news, and legislative dynamics. In a pessimistic scenario, if legislation is delayed, reserve adoption falls short of expectations, or the SEC rejects the ETF, XRP may fall below the August 3 low of $2.7254, testing $2.5; in an optimistic scenario, if the ETF is approved, the banking license is granted, or the CLARITY Act receives bipartisan support, XRP is expected to break through the historical high of $3.6606 and move towards $5. The development of the global macro economy and the trend of Bitcoin will also have a correlated impact on XRP's price performance.

[Bitcoin falls test market sentiment, Whale dumping and ETF outflow pressure]

As XRP experiences a pullback due to the uncertainty surrounding the ETF timeline, Bitcoin also suddenly faced a sharp fall, dipping to an intraday low of $110,306. Market experts attribute this sudden drop to a single dumping of 24,000 BTC (worth over $2.7 billion) by a Whale, who still holds 153,000 BTC, raising concerns in the market about further dumping. The sell-off coincided with a continuous outflow of funds from the Bitcoin Spot ETF for six days, with a net outflow of $1.179 billion for the week ending August 22, marking the largest single-week outflow since February 2025. If the ETF outflow continues and the Whale keeps selling, BTC may face a deeper pullback.

[Federal Reserve Policy Path and Key Data as a Market Indicator]

Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted on August 22 that a rate cut in September could have once driven Bitcoin to rebound by 3.27%, the optimism was soon replaced by caution. High inflation and a resilient U.S. economy may weaken the Fed's willingness to significantly cut rates to support the labor market. If monetary policy is less dovish than expected, it could put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. This week, key data such as U.S. consumer confidence, unemployment claims, and personal income and expenditure reports will influence the Fed's policy stance. If the core PCE price index unexpectedly surges, the September rate cut may be off the table, which would be bearish for Bitcoin; conversely, if inflation is mild, it could trigger a new round of breakthroughs.

[Investment Outlook and Strategy Recommendations]

Traders should closely monitor the following key events to assess the rebound potential of XRP and BTC: news related to the XRP spot ETF, legislative progress on the U.S. "CLARITY Act", economic data affecting interest rate cut expectations, and ETF capital flows. It is advisable to avoid high volatility in the short term and focus on the opportunities arising from the implementation of the ETF framework and shifts in macro policy in the medium to long term.