XRP PI soul questioning: If Strategy had bought XRP back then, the current Holdings value would be 130 billion dollars, more than twice that of Bitcoin! Saylor firmly rebuts: BTC is the only one.

The business intelligence giant turned Bitcoin holdings Whale, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has reached a new milestone! The latest financial report shows that its Bitcoin open interest has reached an astonishing 607,770 BTC, accounting for 2.9% of the total Bitcoin supply, with a total holding cost of $43.6 billion, and unrealized gains reaching as high as $29 billion at current prices. However, a thought experiment has sparked on X (formerly Twitter): if Strategy had invested the same amount of funds into XRP (Ripple) since August 2020, its encryption asset value would have exceeded $130 billion, nearly doubling. Although this hypothesis was firmly denied by founder Michael Saylor, it has prompted a deep reflection in the market regarding institutional encryption asset allocation strategies.

Bitcoin Whale's Holdings Password and Cost Concerns

With the strategy of "continuously bottom-fishing in bear markets and firmly holding in bull markets," Strategy has become the global leader in publicly listed companies' Bitcoin Holdings. Its average holding cost has risen to $71,756 per coin, approaching historical high regions. This means that if faced with a deep bear market correction, its margin of safety will significantly narrow. In the past year, it has been especially aggressive—sweeping nearly 400,000 BTC based on the 226,500 BTC as of August 1, 2024, highlighting its extreme faith in Bitcoin.

The Amazing Calculation of XRP Replacing History: 130 Billion vs 71.4 Billion

A tweet from ASIMOV Protocol researcher Matt Hamilton has sparked heated discussions. He proposed through rigorous backtesting that if the Strategy had invested in XRP instead of BTC with the exact same flow of funds and timing since August 2020, the results would be groundbreaking.

• Five-Year Long-Term Performance: Bitcoin increased by 894%, XRP increased by 986%, with a small difference between the two.
• Key Differences in the Past Year: Bitcoin rose by 75% ($67,000 → $117,000), while XRP surged by 423% ($0.60 → $3.16) due to positive stimulation from the settlement with the U.S. SEC.
• Holdings Value Comparison: Due to the Strategy's intensive investment in the past year (accounting for 65% of total holdings), coinciding with the main upward trend of XRP, its encryption asset value will exceed $130 billion, nearly doubling the actual Bitcoin holdings value ($71.4 billion).

Saylor's Bitcoin Fundamentalism: Faith Over Data

In response to the hypothetical skepticism, Michael Saylor's reply highlights his stance on Bitcoin Maximalism:

1. "Bitcoin is supreme": Saylor has publicly stated multiple times that Bitcoin has no rivals in the encryption field, viewing it as the ultimate "digital gold."
2. Undermining XRP's Attributes: He has bluntly stated that XRP is an "unregistered security," fundamentally denying its investment value.
3. Market Share Vision: Firmly believe that Bitcoin should occupy 95% of the entire cryptocurrency market, with all other tokens competing for the remaining 5%.
4. Ultimate Value Belief: Firmly believe that Bitcoin will reach a million dollars or even tens of millions in the future, rejecting any "second best choices" (no second best, no plan B).

The Future of Diversified Institutional Allocation: XRP ETF May Become a Variable

Although the Strategy sticks to the Bitcoin camp, the hypothetical deductions have enlightening implications for a broader range of institutional investors:

• Yield Difference Warning: Mainstream tokens like XRP may provide excess returns during specific periods, challenging the single allocation strategy of Bitcoin.
• ETF Fund Diversion: The inflow of funds after the approval of the Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF proves that when conditions are ripe, institutional funds are willing to flow from Bitcoin to alternative encryption asset ETFs.
• XRP ETF Expectations: If a spot ETF based on XRP is approved, it will greatly lower the threshold for institutional allocation, potentially attracting some Wall Street capital seeking diversification and potential high returns. This could become a key catalyst for changing the institutional acceptance of XRP.

Conclusion: Strategy's huge gamble on Bitcoin has yielded substantial paper profits, and its faith-driven "All in BTC" strategy has become a landmark case in the encryption world. However, the historical evolution of XRP as a substitute reflects the differences in explosive potential of different crypto assets under specific market conditions, like a mirror. While Saylor's fundamentalist stance on Bitcoin remains unwavering, other institutional investors—especially publicly traded companies that follow Strategy's lead in incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets—may reassess the risks of holding a single asset. As the regulatory framework for the encryption market gradually clarifies and more spot ETFs are established, the trend towards diversification of institutional capital flows may be inevitable, and Bitcoin's "absolute dominance" position will face ongoing challenges.