Expert from Bitwise: The 4-Year Cycle is Dead, 2026 Will Be the "Explosive" Year for Bitcoin

Matt Hougan, CIO of the digital asset management company Bitwise, believes that the traditional "4-year cycle" that once dominated the Bitcoin and crypto market is now "dead." According to him, the factors that once created this cycle, such as Bitcoin's halving, are becoming weaker. He explains that with each halving that passes, its impact is halved as well, making it no longer a leading factor in the market as it once was.

New Impulse from Institutions and Policies Instead, long-term and more systematic factors are coming to the fore. Hougan lists a series of new drivers: The trend of investing in ETF funds will begin in 2024 and will last for 5–10 years. Major financial institutions are only just beginning to approach the market — pension funds, charities, and national trading platforms are still in the review phase. The legal completion process will start in January 2025 and is expected to continue for many years. Wall Street has also officially entered the crypto field, starting with the U.S. Congress passing the GENIUS Act this month, paving the way for billions of USD to flow into the industry. The Future of Crypto Breaks Free from Old Frameworks From these new fluctuations, Hougan concluded: "I believe that the long-term driving forces beneficial to crypto will completely overshadow the effects of the 4-year cycle – if that cycle still exists – and 2026 will be a wonderful year." His main message is: investors should look at the market with a long-term perspective, rather than being constrained by old models.