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ETH rising momentum? Options market betting on the upgrade of Ethereum Pectra and the favorable low transaction fees
QCP Capital pointed out that the ETH options market indicates that the volatility in March may intensify, which may be related to market expectations for the Pectra upgrade scheduled to go live in early April. Santiment also found that ETH transaction fees have dropped to $0.41, a significant decrease from the 2-year high of $15.21, potentially signaling mid to long-term Favourable Information. With Solana's meme culture under pressure and the upcoming Pectra upgrade testing on March 24 next week, the market seems to be shifting its focus to Ethereum. Zhu Su, the founder of Three Arrows Capital (3AC), recently suggested going long on Ethereum. QCP Capital: Market positioning ahead of Ethereum's Pectra upgrade. Digital asset trading firm QCP Capital also posted on their Telegram channel last night, stating that the term structure shows a significant kink near the March expiration date, especially in ETH options, indicating a significant increase in volatility around that time, possibly related to Ethereum's expected Pectra upgrade in early April. Looking back at previous major upgrades: 'The Merge' (September 2022) exhibited a typical 'buy the rumor, sell the news' pattern, with ETH skyrocketing over 100% from the June low but falling immediately after the upgrade was completed. Shanghai (April 2023) allowed stake withdrawals, with market concerns about dumping pressure, but selling pressure did not materialize, and ETH rose by 30% in the following months. The ETH options market leans towards a rise, but caution is still advised. Currently, as market discussions heat up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event. Starting from March 28, the options market's bias towards calls (buy options) may become a new market theme, especially as the crypto market is temporarily stalled due to the 'Trump Tariff Event.' However, QCP Capital also warns that the overall weakness in the altcoin market is putting pressure on market sentiment—LIBRA collapse, SOL and ETH falling to pre-election levels, BTC market dominance (BTC.D) nearing historic highs. QCP Capital believes that for altcoins to truly experience sustained recovery, it requires not only market catalysts but also real applications and network efficiency improvements, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows. Extended reading: Vitalik urges prioritizing 'Blob scaling,' will the Pectra upgrade be an opportunity for ETH to rise? Santiment: Transaction fees drop to $0.41, potentially signaling mid to long-term Favourable Information. Yesterday, on-chain sentiment analysis account Santiment also pointed out that as Ethereum discussions begin to rise and exchange supply drops to historic lows, Ethereum is showing signs of a rebound. Today, Santiment once again mentioned that the current average transaction fee for Ethereum is only $0.41, a significant drop from the high point of $15.21 in the past 2 years. Low transaction fees usually indicate that the network is not overly congested, which could be a positive signal for Ethereum's mid to long-term price trend. Extremely low transaction fees (as in the current situation) may attract more users back, and Ethereum's network activity and utility value are expected to gradually increase. Ethereum quickly recovers from yesterday's decline. As of the deadline, Ethereum is rapidly recovering from yesterday's dip to $2605, now trading at $2679.8, with a narrowed 24-hour decline of -1.75%. Looking ahead, it is recommended to closely follow the ETH/BTC and SOL/ETH trading pairs to observe whether Ethereum is stronger compared to other Mainstream Tokens.