After the altcoin season, how to continue to profit in the new Cryptocurrency landscape?

Through the compound interest effect over time, wealth continues to accumulate. This article is sourced from the well-known Cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher, and compiled and translated by TechFlow. (Background: Former US Treasury Secretary Summers warns that uncontrollable inflation may erupt again, and the current Fed rate cut cycle may have ended) The 4-year cycle has come to an end. We are entering a new normalization in Cryptocurrency - survival of the fittest, where those unfit will be eliminated. Here is my strategy for adapting to market changes in 2025 to continue accumulating wealth in unknown territories. Before sharing my strategy, let's first explore why the 4-year cycle has become a thing of the past. I believe there are two reasons why the 4-year cycle no longer applies. 1. Halving effect weakening First, from the supply side, the Halving effect of BTC is gradually weakening. With each Halving, the reduction in new BTC issuance is also decreasing. For example, the Halving in 2012 and 2016 reduced issuance by 50% and 25% respectively, which had a significant impact on market prices. However, by 2024, the reduction in issuance from Halving is only 6.25%. This means that the driving force of Halving on prices is no longer as strong as before. 2. ETF changes market rules Secondly, from the demand side, the launch of BTC ETF is a major variable that has permanently changed the market rules. BTC ETF is a financial instrument that allows TradFi market investors to indirectly invest in BTC. Since their launch, they have become the most successful ETF product in history, with demand far exceeding expectations. This influx of demand has not only changed the overall landscape of the encryption market but also broken many old market norms (such as the 4-year cycle). The biggest impact of ETF is actually reflected in the AltCoin market. Let me explain in detail. In the past, you may have often seen a chart showing the price rotation relationship between BTC and AltCoin. This was indeed valid in 2021. But now, this relationship has become ineffective. (Original image from Miles Deutscher, compiled by TechFlow) Wealth effect of BTC disappears In 2017 and 2021, when the price of BTC rose, many wealthy BTC Whales would transfer profits to AltCoins on Centralized Exchanges (CEX), driving the prosperity of the AltCoin market. However, most of the new capital flow is now entering the market through BTC ETF, and these funds are not flowing into the AltCoin market. In other words, there has been a fundamental change in the way funds flow, and AltCoins are no longer benefiting from the wealth effect of BTC. Retail investors skip stages 2 (ETH) and 3 (Mainstream Tokens) Retail investors are now directly flocking to high-risk speculative projects on-chain, also known as "on-chain casino games" (Pump Fun). Compared to 2021, the number of retail investors in this cycle has significantly decreased. This is mainly due to macroeconomic pressures and the setbacks many faced in the previous cycle with events like LUNA, FTX, BlockFi, and Voyager. However, those retail investors who remain in the market have skipped Mainstream Tokens and opted to seek opportunities on-chain. You can read my detailed analysis on how this phenomenon affects the market here. If my assessment is correct, meaning the cycle theory no longer applies, what changes will this bring to the future market? I have both bad news and good news to share. The bad news is: "Getting rich while lying down" is getting harder. This is a natural signal of the industry gradually maturing. In fact, there are more trading opportunities in the market now, but if you continue to use the strategy from 2021 - such as holding a bunch of AltCoins and quietly waiting for the 'AltCoin season' to come - you may be disappointed or even underperform. The good news is: Since there is no longer a so-called four-year cycle, this also means that multi-year Bear Markets triggered by specific Cryptocurrency factors will no longer occur. Of course, from a macroeconomic perspective, long-term Bear Markets are still possible, as Cryptocurrency does not operate in isolation and its correlation with macroeconomics is now tighter than ever. Market "risk-on periods" and "risk-off periods" are more likely to be driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions. These changes usually trigger short-term mini echo-bubbles, rather than prolonged one-way bullish trends lasting for months. Echo-bubbles, referring to short-term market rebounds brought about by changes in macroeconomic conditions, although smaller in scale, share similarities with past large bubbles. In these bubbles, there are plenty of money-making opportunities. For example, in 2024, we witnessed rotation of different hotspots: November was the meme frenzy, December was AI concepts, and January was smart agents AI. Undoubtedly, new trends will continue to emerge. If you are sharp enough, these are excellent money-making opportunities, but they require a slightly different strategy than in past cycles. This leads to the content I am about to discuss: my strategy. A few days ago, I had dinner with @gametheorizing, who shared a very insightful perspective. Many people are pursuing an ultimate goal: whether it's to quadruple, decuple, or twentyfold their investment portfolio. However, a better strategy is to focus on multiple small bets rather than putting all your eggs in one basket. By continuously accumulating a series of small victories, in the long run, the returns from this approach may be greater. Therefore, instead of betting everything on the Altcoin season to quickly double your assets, try to accumulate wealth continuously through compound interest over time. Specifically, you can adopt this strategy: Small bet > Take profits, bet again > Take profits again, repeat the cycle. This is why many top traders and thinkers in the encryption field (such as Jordi) were former professional poker players. They learned from poker how to approach each trade with probabilistic thinking, evaluating possible outcomes rather than blindly betting. My portfolio is currently allocated as follows: 50% invested in high conviction assets for the long term, and 50% used for stablecoins and active trading. I use this portion of funds to look for short-term opportunities in the market, entering and exiting flexibly. Additionally, I use stablecoins as a benchmark to measure the success of my trades. Every time I exit a trade, I convert the profits back to stablecoins to clearly see my returns. If your Cryptocurrency portfolio is too diversified and you are unsure how to navigate the current market changes, I shared a guide last week that explains how to optimize your portfolio based on market changes. In that article, I emphasized a key point: the importance of setting an "invalidation" standard for each trade. This is similar to when you decide to purchase a certain Cryptocurrency, you need a clear reason to validate your choice. The so-called "invalidation" refers to the standard of exiting a trade promptly when market conditions no longer align with your expectations. I noticed that many people lack basic risk...