Trump's encryption-friendly executive order or 'rewriting the four-year bull and bear cycle of BTC', Bitwise: Institutional trillions of funds bring structural changes

BTC has followed the "four-year cycle" for a long time, but this Bull Market in 2025 may not enter a bear market in 2026 as in the past. With Trump's latest executive order on Cryptocurrency (EO), the rules of the market may be completely changed and the market will no longer simply follow past rules. (Previous context: Republican lawmakers propose amending the constitution to allow Trump to serve as president for another term in 2028, is it possible?) (Background: President Trump demanded an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve: I understand the interest rate better than Powell! US bond Interest rates are falling) Matt Hougan, the investment director of Bitwise, a US Cryptocurrency asset management company, recently wrote an article exploring how BTC broke the rule of "three years of rise and one year of pullback" due to the shift of US regulation, the influx of ETF funds, and the entry of Wall Street institutions, which may extend this Bull Market to 2026 or even longer. Related reading: Trump signs encryption-friendly executive order: assess BTC strategic reserves, ban issuance of CBDC, and establish a new regulatory framework. BTC's four-year cycle: Is there really a pattern to follow? First, he reviewed the trend of BTC prices in the past 14 years, which indeed showed a four-year cycle: 2011-2013 Bull Market → Mt. Gox collapsed in 2014, and the market fell sharply. 2015-2017 Bull Market → The SEC suppressed ICO in 2018, and the market collapsed. 2019-2021 Bull Market → FTX, Three Arrows, Celsius collapsed in 2022, and the market entered the winter. In 2023, the market entered a new cycle, and the key turning point came from Grayscale's victory over the SEC, opening the door to BTC ETF. At that time, the BTC price was only $22,218, and it has now exceeded $102,674. Mainstream funds have entered the market comprehensively. According to this pattern, 2025 should be a big Bull Market for BTC, and 2026 may have a pullback. However, this time, Matt Hougan believes it may be different. Data source: Bitwise Asset Management Company Trump's executive order: Will the Bull Market be extended? Last week, Trump signed an extremely bullish Cryptocurrency executive order, including: Treating digital assets as a "national priority" to promote the United States as a global Cryptocurrency center. Establishing clear regulatory frameworks to end years of vague regulation and policy swings. Considering establishing a "national Cryptocurrency reserve", which may mean that the government will buy BTC on a large scale. Matt Hougan believes that this executive order, coupled with the SEC's attitude change, basically paves the way for Wall Street institutions to enter the market comprehensively. If the BTC ETF allows "ordinary investors" to easily buy BTC, then Trump's policy allows banks, retirement funds, and large institutions to hold encryption assets with peace of mind. This will bring trillions of dollars of funds into the market and fundamentally change the market structure. Related reading: SEC establishes "Cryptocurrency working group" led by encryption mother Hester Peirce: formulate clear regulatory frameworks. Will it collapse in 2026? Analyzing the past four-year cycle, market pullbacks often come from leveraged overheating, fraud outbreaks, and regulatory crackdowns. Although there are now a large number of BTC leveraged loans, leveraged ETFs, and derivative products in the market, it is different from the past: Market participants are more mature-Retail investors mainly drove the Bull Market in the past, and now institutional funds dominate, which reduces market fluctuations. The regulatory attitude tends to be friendly. In the past, market big dumps often came from regulatory crackdowns (such as the ICO collapse in 2018), but this time the US government is promoting Cryptocurrency development. Long-term funds enter the market-Retirement funds, sovereign funds, Wall Street asset management companies, and other institutions usually have a holding cycle of more than 5 years and will not easily withdraw due to short-term price fluctuations. These factors make the market pullback in 2026 may not be as dramatic as in the past. Finally, Hougan believes that: Will the cycle of BTC end? maybe not. But this time, the market will not experience a 70% collapse as it did in the past.