The US dollar has risen to its highest level in nearly two years! Analysts: The prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates and Trump's policies are unfavorable to BTC

Due to the prospects of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the potential impact of Trump's tax and tariff policies, the US dollar has been rising recently, which analysts believe may have a negative impact on risk assets such as BTC. (Summary: BTC fluctuates around $95,000》US initial jobless claims lower than expected, probability of Fed not cutting interest rates in January exceeds 91%) (Background: Was Trump the 'lowest point' for BTC when taking office? Yellen warns of US debt ceiling date between January 14-23) While the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25-basis-point rate cut last month, it reduced the expected number of rate cuts in 2025. In addition, Trump's potential tariff and tax policies after taking office have raised concerns about inflation and the Fed's rate cut prospects, leading to a continuous rise in the US dollar since early last month, reaching 108.86 points yesterday (2), a two-year high. After a slight pullback in November of last year, the US dollar continued to rise in December. Source: TradingView Analyst: The US dollar will continue to strengthen in the first half of 2025 In this context, Lee Hardman, a forex analyst at MUFG Financial Group, stated that the US dollar may continue to strengthen in the first half of 2025 due to Trump's potential implementation of tariff policies and limited impact of Fed's rate cut prospects. At the beginning of the new year, the US dollar continued to rise, and the market expects Trump to quickly introduce policies favorable to the rise of the economy during the early stages of his term. Kit Juckes, Chief Forex Strategist at Societe Generale, who remains cautious about the continuous strength of the US dollar, also stated: The US dollar may face pressure, but the premise is that the US economic data unexpectedly shows that the Fed will cut interest rates more than once in the first half of this year, with a total cut of over 50 basis points throughout the year. The possibility of this happening is not small, but the likelihood of cracks appearing in the US economy at the beginning of the year seems low. Therefore, I am more inclined to temporarily suspend the idea of ​​being bearish on the US dollar and make a decision when the situation becomes clear. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in January at the same level is 88.8% According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate at the meeting at the end of this month is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is only 11.2%. The market expects an 88.8% probability that the Fed will pause its rate cuts this month. Source: CME FedWatch tool However, the market believes that the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate in March and choosing a 25-basis-point rate cut is almost the same, at 46.2% and 48.4% respectively, indicating that investors still have uncertainties about the US economy and inflation. Analyst: Continuous strength of the US dollar may be unfavorable for BTC Facing the current situation, CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten also stated in an article yesterday (2) that since Trump won the US presidential election, the US dollar index has risen by more than 3%. It is worth noting that during the Bull Market of BTC in 2017, the corresponding trend was a decline in the US dollar. From the current situation, there are no signs of a decline in the US dollar yet, and with Trump's economic policies potentially continuing to drive the US dollar higher, BTC may face significant pressure. However, although the strengthening of the US dollar is believed to be unfavorable for risk assets including BTC, James added that Trump has expressed support for BTC many times before taking office, and BTC has also experienced a huge rise after his victory, approaching the $110,000 mark at one point. Therefore, the performance of BTC in this year is also worth looking forward to. Related reports: Switzerland launches petition to establish BTC reserves, with only 100,000 signatures needed to enter a referendum How to judge a US economic recession? Please accept these 15 key indicators Yellen: US economy resilient, 'no red light' for soft landing already achieved, may step down as Treasury Secretary under Biden (US dollar rises to nearly two-year high! Analyst: Fed rate cut prospects and Trump's policies are unfavorable for BTC) This article was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media in the dynamic region.