I misread a sentence before, so I reposted it. Or Fed Chairman Powell's speech.

First, the hawk and the dove, let him speak.
Eagle - Says the Fed will be ready to raise interest rates further if appropriate.
Dove - will "proceed with caution" on any further rate hikes.
not too panic
The little bee believes that the probability of what the eagle said in Powell's speech is 100%. Because it is necessary to make the market (businesses and consumers) more cautious emotionally, so as to restrain economic heat, oil prices and inflation, so there is no need to panic too much.
"Will proceed with caution on any further rate hikes." A little dovish, not too bad.
don't be optimistic
The source of the second and third screenshots is the Wall Street Journal. According to this statement, "past interest rate hikes have not completely slowed economic growth, which is the reason for maintaining interest rate stability." This sentence should mean that it is still too early to cut interest rates.
be sensitive
But whether interest rates will be raised in the fourth quarter may depend on PCE data, CPI data, and non-farm payrolls. The final result still depends on the Fed meeting on September 21-22 and the dot plot.
US PCE data at 20:30 on August 31;
At 20:30 on September 1, the US non-agricultural data;
US CPI data at 20:30 on September 13;
September 21 at 2:00 Fed interest rate decision + interest rate forecast dot plot (final verdict)
The importance of the dot plot is not only to clarify whether interest rates will be raised in the fourth quarter, but also to predict when interest rates will be cut next year.
To sum up Lao Bao:
First, it is too early to cut interest rates.
Second, whether there will be another rate hike depends on the next economic data. But the next rate hike will be very cautious.
About the market:
First, the general trend is still downward. Because it has neither continued to raise interest rates, maintained high interest rates, or even just lowered interest rates, which was a bit dangerous.
Second, there is no interest rate decision in October, so Little Bee still believes that after the dot plot at the end of September comes out, there will be a rebound in October. After all, it is expectations and emotions that affect short-term trends. But note that in terms of rebound, the little bee believes that the pie will not have a new high this year.
Third, at present, CME Group's September interest rate forecast (Figure 4) shows that there is a high probability of no interest rate hike. But this probability has dropped. It was about 88% before, but now it has dropped to 80%. So the next market is a sensitive market, macro data, some events, including events in the currency circle will affect the market.
The current operation of Little Bee is that the short position has been closed, and the cottage is still short. Auntie Dabing is too immobile.