Will a big crash come before the bull season?

Let's start by stating that when Bitcoin entered the bull season a few years ago, investors were not mentally ready for the bull season at that time.
With the announcement of the pandemic, investors had lost very serious losses in the markets in a short time.
Of course, the cryptocurrency market had its share of it at that time.
Bitcoin had made up for its losses in a few months, and we had a bull season that kept many of you involved in this market.
Investors who missed the bull season for fear of a new collapse at any moment were in the majority. Of course, we should include investors who present themselves as "experienced" in this group.
A similar fear is happening right now. In fact, this fear has always been experienced after the pandemic.
Surely a collapse must come?
No. Comparisons over a single cycle may give a different answer to this question, but a new major crash doesn't necessarily have to come.
The current loop is not like the previous loop.
It looks more like the 2014-2017 cycle.
In what ways is the current cycle similar to the 2014-2017 cycle?
▫️Bitcoin could not overcome the $400 resistance, which was a critical level at that time, for about 85 weeks. It had accumulated under this zone for a long time.
Consolidation rather than volatility dominated the cycle.
We are experiencing something similar in this cycle.
Bitcoin has not been able to break through the critical $30K-34K region for about 60 weeks. It is consolidated.
▫️Bitcoin had closed 14 candles below the Bollinger middle band in the monthly time frame at that time.
A close above the middle band came in November of 2015, after which the story completely changed.
We are experiencing something similar in this cycle.
Bitcoin has been closing below the middle band for 14 months, and this June, it closed above the middle band.
▫️Bitcoin was placed above the Bollinger middle band in the monthly time frame in 2016, while the bands were narrowing.
We had a similar experience in June.
▫️Bitcoin carried out the bottom work with a structure that we can call "double bottom" in 2015. Afterwards, we saw a steady rise.
We are experiencing something similar in this cycle.
Bitcoin made the bottom run with a "TOBO"-like structure in this cycle.
What is the detail that is not talked about in the past loop?
Bitcoin has been trading below the $30K-34K level, which is the critical zone in the current bear season, for about 60 weeks.
It also accumulated below $25K for 39 weeks. It has provided an opportunity for investors who want to buy for a very long time.
Bitcoin had only 28 weekly closes below the crucial $6K level in the previous bear season.
Maybe there were too many arguments for those who insisted not to buy and wanted to be stubborn with the market.
There were many more arguments for those willing to buy and take risks. Intention matters.
Everyone made their own choice.
After that, every possibility should be evaluated and a road map should be drawn. Much more detailed investigation should be done.
Bitcoin could turn a new page if it breaks the current major resistance zone. It can switch to the bull season without a new and big collapse.
If you missed the rise in Bitcoin, buying before the major resistance zone can be a headache in the very short term.
Don't forget this either.
We will continue to review step by step.
Good luck to everyone.
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