#美联储货币政策# Follow up on Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. Analysis shows that the market has diverging expectations for a rate cut in September. Some traders have lowered their expectations, but there is still about an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Interestingly, there are a large number of options betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, which would yield substantial profits if successful.

Based on on-chain data, there has not been a significant change in capital flow recently. This may indicate that most investors are waiting and observing, anticipating clearer signals from Powell's speech. It is advisable to closely follow the on-chain capital flow and changes in large holder addresses within 24 hours after the speech, as it may capture subtle shifts in market sentiment.

Overall, there is still uncertainty regarding the direction of monetary policy. It is necessary to remain calm and objective, making judgments based on data. Next, we will continue to track on-chain indicators to provide reference for investment strategies.