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New regulations for stablecoins in Hong Kong lead to a 32.94% drop in off-exchange USDT volume.
Analysis of the Impact of the New Hong Kong Stablecoin Management Regulations on the OTC Trading Market
Hong Kong will officially implement new stablecoin management regulations on August 1, 2025. The regulations set strict rules for the issuance and operation of stablecoins, explicitly prohibiting unlicensed stablecoin-related activities, and no transition period has been established. This policy change has had a direct impact on local cryptocurrency service providers in Hong Kong, with several institutions announcing a suspension of their stablecoin operations to apply for the relevant licenses.
This article aims to assess the actual impact of the new regulations from an on-chain perspective by analyzing the recent TRC20-USDT outflow data from Hong Kong OTC Trading service provider (HKVAOTC).
Data Overview
The research subjects include store-type service providers primarily serving offline real-name customers, as well as non-store-type service providers mainly serving online anonymous customers. The data covers the TRC20-USDT withdrawal records for the two time periods from June 1 to July 31, 2025, and from August 1 to August 8, excluding non-commercial transfer activities.
Overall Market Size Changes
Before the new regulations are implemented, from June 1 to July 31, (, the average daily outflow of all business addresses was 52.04M USDT. After the implementation of the new regulations, from August 1 to August 8, ), the average daily outflow dropped to 34.90M USDT.
Overall, the stablecoin trading market size has decreased by 32.94%, indicating that the new regulations have had a significant impact on the Hong Kong crypto industry.
The Impact Level of Different Types of Service Providers
Store Service Provider:
Non-store service providers:
Data shows that store-based service providers are significantly more impacted than non-store-based service providers, which may indicate that some businesses have shifted to underground operations in the short term.
Conclusion
The new stablecoin management regulations mark an important advancement in the regulation of the cryptocurrency industry in Hong Kong, significantly impacting the local OTC Trading service sector in the short term. In response to the new regulations, industry insiders have had varying reactions: some choose to comply and apply for licenses, while others may turn to covert operations. This differentiated choice reflects the industry's varied strategies in responding to the new policies.