From Exchange to On-Chain Strategy: A Data-Driven Trader's Journey of Transformation

In the cryptocurrency space, there is a pioneer who started in the listing department of an exchange and, with a profound insight into on-chain data and rich experience in project due diligence, gradually grew to become a leader in data-driven on-chain trading.

In 2017, this trader born in Taiwan entered the cryptocurrency industry. Two years later, he joined a mainland exchange, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence. This experience not only allowed him to accumulate a deep understanding of the industry but also laid a solid foundation for data analysis.

In 2022, he decided to leave the exchange and embark on an independent entrepreneurial journey. Initially, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the excitement in the NFT market gradually faded, he keenly noticed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, focusing his strategy on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analytical tools and trading bots to monitor on-chain address movements and generate trading signals.

This trader's strategy is unique: he does not focus on narrative valuations, but rather on on-chain monitoring and strict take-profit and stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear take-profit and stop-loss strategies, trading can be freed from the interference of subjective emotions.

At the same time, he also pointed out that trading logic needs constant optimization. Initially, he focused on the on-chain trading behavior of smart money, then expanded his focus to team manipulation behaviors, and finally to the key main address behaviors of individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continuously improved the accuracy of trading decisions.

Currently, his main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. In addition, the recently outstanding Moodeng project has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000-fold return in a short period. However, for him, the significance of Moodeng goes beyond just profit.

The true value of Moodeng lies in the validation of its data-driven strategy's effectiveness. By tracking the on-chain behavior of Moodeng's main addresses, it confirmed the trading theory of "following the main force." This practical result not only enhances the credibility of its strategy but also provides valuable experiential support for future trading decisions.

Data and Discipline: The Keys to Successful Trading

In the trading process, the trader emphasized the standardized strategy of "doubling down on the principal and cutting losses in half," which is the core of their risk management. This strategy avoids market sentiment interference with clear rules and verifies the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.

In trading, you only need to maintain a win rate of over 33% to achieve a positive EV. For example:

• Take profit scenario: Sell all after assets double, achieving a 100% return.

• Stop-loss scenario: sell all after the asset is halved, with a loss of 50%.

Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns will show positive growth. His strategy is based on probability, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset and avoiding the temptation to waver in trading decisions due to short-term market fluctuations.

At the same time, his team developed a series of tools centered around data to provide users with in-depth insights into market trends and major player behaviors:

Token Insider Analysis

Analyze the holding structure and address behavior of tokens through big data. Its core functions include:

• Major Behavior Identification: Identify addresses with transfer associations or collective trading characteristics and classify them as "gang" or "main force cluster".
• Snapshot and trend analysis: Qualitative and quantitative assessment of token holding concentration to identify whether the main forces are accumulating.
• Behavior Model Optimization: Combine the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and on-chain capital flow trends to form accurate predictions of major operations.

FOMO Signal

This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on a database of thousands of smart money addresses accumulated by the team. When a group of historically successful addresses collectively buys a certain token within a short period in the market, the FOMO signal is triggered. This signal can help users quickly capture market hotspots and determine whether the token has potential short-term upside.

These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the main accumulation level of a certain token has reached a peak, while the FOMO signal captures the collective buying behavior of several smart money, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combined with the strategies of doubling their capital and stop-loss at half.

Data-driven methods for capturing the main force's direction

In the cryptocurrency market, the main players profit through accumulation and distribution, and the on-chain holding behavior inevitably changes during this process. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the main players' behavior patterns through data. For example, during the accumulation period, the main players exhibit specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals.

However, when more people adopt similar strategies, the main players may adjust their strategies or even hide their behaviors. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify the potential hidden behaviors of the main players. This trader believes that this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.

His strategy starts by tracking "smart money," which typically achieves over a 40% win rate in the market and realizes significant returns. By using tools to filter these addresses, he and his team established their own DAO and monitoring list, continuously tracking a cluster of high-performing addresses.

The core methods of the strategy include:

• Identify Collective Actions: Team monitoring has found that certain address clusters operate synchronously, including collective accumulation and distribution behaviors. This pattern becomes the foundation of the strategy.
• Position Control: When following the main force, avoid entering the top 100 holdings list to maintain a low profile and not affect the main force's trading rhythm. Usually, the buying position does not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
• Signal response: When a cluster in the monitoring list collectively enters a certain token, the strategy follows up with small exploratory amounts to avoid prematurely exposing its own actions.

Moodeng Exchange Case

The successful trades of Moodeng are an important milestone for this trader team. In September 2024, the team monitored a long-term performing address cluster entering Moodeng on a large scale and quickly accumulating. Based on the main force's past trading methods, the team maintained small purchases and gradually followed up.

During the transaction process, the main force tests the market's buying and selling sentiment through multiple rallies and pullbacks, while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. By monitoring the changes in the holding ratios of these main addresses in real-time, it is found that the main force will accumulate chips again after each pullback. This phenomenon has strengthened the team's bullish confidence in Moodeng.

In the end, Moodeng rose from an initial small market cap to hundreds of millions, and the team not only gained high returns but also validated the trading theory of "following the main force" through this process.

Seize the capital rotation opportunities in the crypto market

The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of capital varies at different periods:

Mainstream Coin Rotation: Funds may concentrate on mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, during which on-chain liquidity is scarce and trading volume is low.

Emerging Public Chains and Hotspot Switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent transition from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Solana has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low gas fees.

Meme track and narrative shift: In more segmented tracks, such as Meme tokens, funds will also rotate due to updates in the launchpad or changes in narrative. For example, from the high-frequency PVP market on Solana to new projects on the Base chain, the focus of market funds continues to shift.

Through on-chain data tools, this trader team monitors on-chain trading volume and capital flow in real-time to assist in decision-making. For example, recent capital rotations indicate that emerging on-chain virtual economies (such as AI Agent and Virtuals) have become hotspots, signaling the team to timely adjust their positions and follow the capital trends.

Calmness and Discipline: The Key to Success or Failure in Trading

A bull market provides numerous opportunities, but it also comes with high risks. In such a market, it is particularly important to maintain calm and discipline:

Independent Judgment: This trader emphasizes that trading should be centered on validating strategies rather than catering to market sentiment. He points out that the emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily lead traders to be deceived by the "eternal bull market" narrative, resulting in excessive optimism.

Timely Profit Taking: A major trap in a bull market is the unwillingness to sell. Even when the market is rising, taking partial profits is key to maintaining a long-term advantage. Even if you miss out on higher points, managing risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.

Support of Stable Cash Flow: Cash flow is the anchor for calm trading. By obtaining stable cash flow through core business or quantitative funds, reliance on short-term market fluctuations can be reduced, making trading more composed.

In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which includes: fear of missing out, returns not meeting expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response, he also shared coping strategies:

Focus on Trading Framework: Trades that go beyond the framework, even if profitable, are not considered successful. The core of trading is to validate strategies and refine understanding, rather than short-term gains.

Establish a Calm Communication Environment: Avoid being disturbed by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially during a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.

Remember the cyclical nature of the market: He pointed out that a bull market is not "eternal", but rather a cycle where opportunities and risks coexist. Even in the presence of strong bullish sentiment, one must remain vigilant about risks, especially when there is only a single narrative in the market without clear supporting logic.

Methods to Quickly Improve Cognitive Level

This trader believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading one's circle, and communicating with people of high cognition can significantly accelerate one's own cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking through the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding individuals is an important way to improve oneself.

In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he seeks his own breakthrough points by continuously learning from the successful experiences and methods of others. The influence of communication with others is subtle and gradual. The actions and results of successful people around him inspire him to think and further optimize his own path. He advocates "upward networking," discovering more possibilities through interactions with more outstanding individuals.

He also mentioned that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" is a book that has had a profound impact on his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth and teaches him to think about wealth management from the perspective of "making money work for you." He noted that this book breaks the traditional educational notion of "stable jobs" and inspires him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.

In addition to books, his progress also benefits from other sources of knowledge. For example:

1. on-chain analysis KOL

• Ai Aunty: Focused on on-chain data analysis, providing in-depth market insights.
• Mr. Mai: Based on market behavior and human nature analysis, explain the logic of the main force's behavior from another perspective.

2. Social Media and Community: By following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, quickly capture market trends and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.

In addition, he believes that the combination of understanding between Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2, exploring how to replicate its successful models in Web3. This cross-domain thinking allows him to stay ahead in the exploration of new tracks.

Summary and Recommendations

Data-Driven and Continuous Optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been validated as feasible in practice, but they require continuous dynamic tuning. Furthermore, whether it's the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switching of narrative tracks, it is essential to remain sensitive and adaptable.

Patience and Discipline: Successful trading relies not only on strategy but also on a stable mindset. Whether in a bull market or a bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment are essential for gaining a long-term advantage.

**Establish cognition and cash