Bitcoin falls below the $90,000 mark, 2025 bear market warning and investor survival guide

Market Overview: Performance is sluggish

As of February 26, 2025, the price of Bitcoin has fallen to around $88,000, and other cryptocurrencies have also generally declined. The overall sentiment in the crypto market has returned to the lows of 2024. The reasons for this market downturn include selling pressure in the equity markets, outflows of funds from Bitcoin ETFs, the hacking of $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum from a certain trading platform, as well as uncertainties related to US-China trade tensions and US tariff policies. These factors have collectively created a risk-averse market environment, impacting the entire cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin Sees "Black Tuesday": Multiple Negative Factors Break Through $90,000 Support

On "Black Tuesday" on February 25, 2025, Bitcoin fell below the psychological barrier of $90,000 for the first time since November 2024, closing at $87,169, with a single-day decline of 7.25%. This crash was not driven by a single event, but rather by the cumulative effect of multiple risk factors:

• Macroeconomic policy pressure

The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico starting in March, causing U.S. Treasury yields to plummet to a two-month low, with global capital rapidly withdrawing from risk assets. DZ Bank analyst Marcel Heinrichs emphasized: "The risk-averse sentiment triggered by the tariff policy directly led to a chain sell-off in cryptocurrencies."

• Regulatory Confidence Crisis

The incident of $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum being stolen from a certain trading platform continues to escalate. Although the platform quickly initiated insurance payouts, research shows that the stolen amount has exceeded 2.4 times that of the $625 million incident of Ronin Network in 2022, severely damaging the market's trust in centralized exchanges.

• Capital withdrawal wave

Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive days, with a single-day outflow exceeding $516 million on the 24th, setting a record high since the product was launched in January 2024. Data shows that the top ten ETFs have collectively lost $644 million this month, indicating that institutional investors are reassessing their allocation to crypto assets.

Future Trends: Key Indicators for the Second Half of 2025

Market analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in mid-March and the G20 finance ministers' summit will become key turning points. Although short-term gloom has not dissipated, derivatives market data shows that Bitcoin futures expiring in December 2025 still maintain a premium of $103,000, suggesting institutional confidence in long-term value.

| Time Node | Observation Indicator | Expected Impact | |---------|--------------|-------------| | March 2025 | Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision | If interest rate hike is paused or favorable for rebound | | June 2025 | EU MiCA regulation fully implemented | May trigger short-term liquidity tightening | | September 2025 | Bitcoin Halving Cycle Effect Starts | Historic Bullish Signal |

A co-founder of a certain project suggested: "Investors should pay attention to the dynamic changes in Bitcoin production costs. When the price falls below the miner shutdown price (currently estimated at $78,000), it often indicates that the market bottom is approaching."

Detailed Strategies for Asset Protection

The current market is sluggish, and macroeconomic pressures along with regulatory uncertainties may continue to affect market sentiment. During periods of market volatility, here are strategies investors can adopt to reduce risk and protect assets:

1. Hold (HODL)

   • Explanation: No matter how the market fluctuates, believe in the long-term value of the assets and choose to hold.
   • Advantages: If the market ultimately recovers, it may yield high returns.
   • Disadvantage: If the market continues to fall, the asset value may further shrink.
   • Applicable Scenarios: Suitable for long-term investors, who need to be mentally prepared to cope with short-term fluctuations.

2. Diversified Investment

   • Explanation: Diversifying assets into different types, such as other cryptocurrencies, traditional stocks, or bonds, reduces the risk of volatility associated with a single asset.
   • Advantages: Reduces dependence on a single asset and lowers overall risk.
   • Disadvantages: Requires knowledge of various assets, management costs are relatively high.
   • Applicable scenarios: Suitable for users with certain investment experience, who need to regularly assess their portfolio.

3. Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)

   • Explanation: Regularly invest a fixed amount, regardless of price fluctuations, to help accumulate assets at a lower price during a Bear Market.
   • Advantages: Reduces average purchase cost, suitable for market volatility period.
   • Disadvantages: Requires continuous investment of funds, which may not be suitable for users with limited capital.
   • Applicable Scenarios: Suitable for users with stable cash flow, long-term investment strategy.

4. Stop Loss Order

   • Explanation: Set an automatic sell order that triggers when the price falls to a specific level, limiting potential losses.
   • Advantages: Effectively manage risks and prevent significant losses.
   • Disadvantage: Short-term market fluctuations may lead to early triggering, missing rebound opportunities.
   • Applicable scenarios: Suitable for risk-averse investors, reasonable stop-loss points need to be set.

5. Transfer to stablecoin

   • Explanation: Converting part or all of the crypto assets into a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, preserving value and hedging.
   • Advantages: Provides stability during market volatility.
   • Disadvantage: May miss out on gains from market rebounds.
   • Applicable scenarios: Suitable for short-term hedging, need to pay attention to the credibility and reserves of stablecoins.

6. Staking or Yield Farming

   • Explanation: Earn passive income by holding certain cryptocurrencies or participating in DeFi protocols, such as staking Ethereum or providing liquidity.
   • Advantages: Even if the market falls, it is possible to earn certain income to offset some losses.
   • Disadvantages: Involves smart contract risks, and the returns may not be sufficient to cover asset depreciation.
   • Applicable Scenario: Suitable for users familiar with DeFi, who need to assess the security of the protocol.

7. Risk Management

   • Explanation: Adjust the investment portfolio according to individual risk tolerance to ensure decisions align with financial situation.
   • Advantages: Helps make decisions that suit one's own situation and reduces psychological stress.
   • Disadvantages: Requires continuous monitoring of the market, adjustments may increase trading costs.
   • Applicable scenarios: Suitable for all users, regular assessment of risk preference is required.

Conclusion

In the context of Bitcoin falling below $90,000, investors need to adopt diversified investment, stop-loss orders, and stablecoin strategies to protect their assets, while also focusing on secure storage and information updates. Through reasonable planning and risk management, losses can be minimized in a potential Bear Market while waiting for market recovery. It is important to emphasize that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should remain vigilant at all times, manage risks appropriately, and develop suitable investment strategies based on their own circumstances.