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The shift in Bitcoin's positioning during the financial crisis: from a safe haven to a risk asset
Bitcoin in the Financial Crisis: Risk Asset or Safe Haven?
The global economy is currently facing an unprecedented crisis. Unlike previous crises, this one is not just a simple economic issue; it also involves multiple aspects such as public health. The suddenness and unpredictability of the pandemic have posed significant challenges for governments and markets around the world.
In this context, Bitcoin, as an emerging asset, has sparked widespread discussion regarding its positioning and performance. Some believe that Bitcoin can serve as a safe-haven asset, but in reality, it currently resembles a risk asset more. During the recent market turmoil, Bitcoin's movements have been highly correlated with risk assets such as crude oil and stock indices, while its correlation with traditional safe-haven assets like gold is relatively low.
Bitcoin is considered to have safe-haven properties for two main reasons: its total supply is fixed, which can hedge against fiat currency inflation risk; and it is easy to store and transfer. However, these characteristics still fall short compared to mature safe-haven assets like gold. More importantly, the market's sentiment towards Bitcoin as a safe haven does not fully align with its actual safe-haven properties.
In the current crisis, the stablecoin USDT has become one of the few rising assets in the cryptocurrency market. This indicates that in extreme market conditions, investors prefer to choose assets pegged to fiat currency. Although USDT is controversial, its market position remains strong.
For investors, it is now necessary to adjust the perception of Bitcoin, viewing it as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool. Whether for value investing or speculative trading, it is essential to fully recognize its high-risk characteristics.
Nevertheless, the current crisis may also provide ordinary people with a rare investment opportunity. By rationally assessing risks and seizing opportunities, it may be possible to accumulate wealth and cross social classes in this once-in-a-century crisis.