Market Observation: Bitcoin Encounters Resistance at $112,000, Experts Warn of Short-Term Fluctuation

The large-scale tax reduction bill promoted by Trump has passed in the House of Representatives and is expected to be signed into effect soon. Although this move may lead to a significant increase in US debt, the strong employment data for June provides support for the policy implementation. Non-farm employment added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, exceeding market expectations. This data prompted traders to adjust their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

However, the Goldman Sachs analyst team holds a different view. They have lowered their forecast for U.S. Treasury yields and maintain that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in the third quarter of this year. They point out that job growth mainly depends on local government hiring, and the labor force participation rate remains weak.

At the same time, the compliance process in the cryptocurrency industry is accelerating. A well-known stablecoin issuer has applied for a national trust bank license in the United States, which is seen as a milestone in the development of the industry. Analysts point out that if the company becomes the first federally regulated stablecoin issuer, it will solidify its position in the institutional market, promote industry standardization, and attract more traditional financial institutions to participate.

In this macro context, the Bitcoin market is sensitive to reactions. After the non-farm data was released, Bitcoin briefly surged to $110,000 but failed to maintain the breakthrough. Nevertheless, several analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects of Bitcoin. Some analysts predict that, driven by multiple factors, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $116,000 by the end of this month. More optimistic forecasts suggest that by the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $200,000.

However, short-term risks remain. The most immediate resistance level is around $112,000, where there are a large number of sell orders. Technical analysis shows that if it cannot break through $110,500, the support range below is between $106,000 and $107,500. A well-known trader warned that Trump's tax cut plan could lead to a short-term contraction in dollar liquidity, or cause Bitcoin prices to fall back to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. He expects that before the end of August, the market may trade sideways or decline slightly, and after liquidity is restored in early September, a rise may be welcomed.

The performance of the altcoin market is uneven. Some tokens have seen significant increases, such as a token related to feng shui which rose by 814% within 24 hours, while another investment-themed token increased by 140%. On a well-known trading platform, the market capitalization of an emerging token once surged to 36.9 million USD, although it later fell back, the 24-hour increase still exceeded 30,000%.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical moment. Bitcoin, although facing resistance, is still generally viewed positively in the long term. However, in the short term, the market may face fluctuations, and investors need to carefully monitor changes in various macro factors and technical indicators.