Citibank predicts that the stablecoin market size may reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, which will impact the traditional banking ecosystem.

On April 25, 2025, Citigroup Research released a report on the "digital dollar." The report pointed out that 2025 could be a turning point for the application of Blockchain in the financial and public sectors, driven by regulatory changes.

Citigroup predicts that by 2030, the total circulating supply of stablecoins could grow to $1.6 trillion under base-case scenarios, $3.7 trillion under optimistic scenarios, and about $500 billion under pessimistic scenarios. It is expected that the supply of stablecoins will still be predominantly dollar-denominated (about 90%), while non-U.S. countries will promote the development of their own central bank digital currencies.

The regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States may drive new net demand for U.S. Treasury securities. By 2030, stablecoin issuers could become one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries. Stablecoins pose a certain threat to the traditional banking ecosystem by substituting deposits. However, they may also offer banks and financial institutions opportunities to provide new services.

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value by pegging the market price to reference assets. These reference assets can be fiat currencies like the US dollar, commodities like gold, or a basket of financial instruments. Key components of the stablecoin system include the stablecoin issuer, the Blockchain ledger, reserves and collateral, and digital wallet providers.

As of April 2025, the total circulating supply of stablecoins has exceeded $230 billion, growing by 54% since April 2024. The top two stablecoins dominate this ecosystem, with a market share of over 90% in terms of value and trading volume, with USDT leading the way, followed by USDC.

The driving factors for the adoption of stablecoins in the United States and globally include practical advantages (speed, low cost, 24/7 availability), macro demand (hedging against inflation, financial inclusion), support and integration from existing banks and payment providers, and regulatory clarity.

Citi Research expects that the baseline scenario for the stablecoin market size in 2030 will be $1.6 trillion, the optimistic scenario will be $3.7 trillion, and the pessimistic scenario will be $0.5 trillion.

The main application scenarios for stablecoins currently and in the future include cryptocurrency trading, business-to-business payments, consumer remittances, institutional trading and capital markets, interbank liquidity, and fund management.

The usage of stablecoins may increase, creating space for new entrants. The current dual monopoly pattern of issuance may persist in the offshore market, but there may be new participants joining the onshore market in each country.

Similar to the bank card market, the stablecoin market may also see the proliferation of national initiatives. Many countries may continue to focus on developing their own central bank digital currencies as tools for national strategic autonomy, particularly in the wholesale and corporate payment sectors.

The adoption of stablecoins and digital assets provides banks and financial institutions with new business opportunities to drive revenue growth. Banks can act directly as issuers of stablecoins or play a more indirect role in payment solutions.

However, stablecoins may also impact the traditional banking system. The shift of bank deposits to stablecoins could affect banks' lending capacity, which may at least suppress economic growth during the transitional period of system adjustments. Different viewpoints suggest that this could either reduce systemic risk or affect credit creation and economic growth.