Ethereum (ETH) has recently been fluctuating in the range of $3500 to $3770, sparking market discussions about whether $4100 is the peak. However, this viewpoint may be too short-sighted.

Looking back at the previous fluctuations of ETH in the range of $2100 to $2500, it was actually a typical washout process. The average position price of both bulls and bears was locked in this range, accumulating momentum for subsequent market movements. The current fluctuation pattern is similar, as it concentrates the average position price through ups and downs while eliminating some retail investors.

It is worth noting that the current macroeconomic environment has a favorable impact on the cryptocurrency market. In the context of a weak real economy, financial markets often become a refuge for capital. Unlike traditional stock markets, the capital flow in the ETH market indicates that institutional investors and large traders may have reached a consensus to continue driving up prices.

Last year's bull market for ETH was interrupted by unexpected factors, but that does not mean the bull market has ended. On the contrary, this may be an opportunity for institutional investors to reposition themselves in preparation for the next round of increases.

From a technical analysis perspective, once ETH breaks through the $4100 level, it is likely to usher in a new round of strong upwards momentum. Considering various factors, the likelihood of this breakthrough is relatively high.

Investors should not be misled by the current volatile market. The next wave of increase for ETH may be brewing, and market participants should remain vigilant and ready to seize opportunities. However, the cryptocurrency market carries high risks, and investors should be cautious and fully assess the risks before making decisions.