Favourable Information in the macro environment drives the market pump, Bitcoin shows caution

Recently, the macro environment has shown a positive shift. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, boosting market risk appetite. Crude oil prices have dropped back to pre-conflict levels, and gold briefly fell below the $3,300 mark. The Federal Reserve Chairman sent key signals during a congressional hearing: while not explicitly ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, implying that it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He stated that if inflationary pressures are controlled, they would "cut rates earlier rather than later," but that the current strong economy does not require hasty actions. This statement was interpreted by the market as dovish, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, leading to a significant rally in U.S. stocks — the Nasdaq 100 reached an all-time high, the Dow Jones surged 500 points in a single day, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem with the dollar.

In terms of regulation, a certain cryptocurrency trading platform is seeking approval from the US SEC to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, low thresholds, lower costs, and around-the-clock trading. If the plan is approved, the platform will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blurring the lines between traditional brokerages and cryptocurrency platforms. Additionally, the new management of the SEC has shifted its regulatory stance towards the cryptocurrency industry, not only withdrawing lawsuits against several cryptocurrency companies but also establishing a working group to formulate regulations for digital assets.

Bitcoin has broken through $106,000 under macro favourable information, but its performance has been relatively restrained. According to analysis, the 13% rise in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflows, reflecting the market's caution towards structural changes. Currently, the chip concentration within 5% of the spot price of Bit has reached 14.5%. On the technical analysis front, several analysts believe that the price may consolidate at current levels, and if it breaks through $107,000, it is expected to reach $110,000; otherwise, it may fall back below $102,000.

On the Ethereum side, a trading platform experienced a large-scale fund withdrawal on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform. This indicates that trader sentiment may have shifted from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. As the capital rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant pump, as its profit supply ratio is far lower than that of Bitcoin, showing potential for a rebound. However, some analysts believe that ETH's price has failed to break the $3000 level for over 20 consecutive weeks, which has damaged market confidence and faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return to above $3000 in the short term.

In the market, several emerging Meme coins have attracted attention, among which $solami and $ACID reached market valuation peaks of $12 million and $18 million respectively. Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their moves into the crypto field, with US company Nano Labs announcing a strategic acquisition of BNB through $500 million in convertible bonds, driving its stock price to surge by 150% in a single day. The Hong Kong market has also seen breakthrough progress, as a certain Chinese brokerage firm obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese brokerage firm to offer mainstream coin trading services, with news causing its Hong Kong stock price to surge over 100% at one point.