Crypto Assets Market Dynamics: Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis and Regulatory Environment Changes

Market Observation

Core inflation data in the U.S. has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there are differing views on future trends in the market. Some opinions suggest that the impact of tariffs will become evident in July and August, while others emphasize companies' pricing restraint in the face of weak demand. There are also contradictions within the Federal Reserve: the chair hinted at possibly lowering the threshold for rate cuts, while some regional Fed presidents insist on maintaining a tightening policy. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to remain cautious, while emphasizing the importance of being wary of misleading short-term data and the independence of the central bank.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress accelerated the legislative process by establishing "Crypto Assets Week," with the "GENIUS Act" becoming the core of the regulatory system. This act incorporates the stablecoin market into the regulatory framework, requiring reserves to be in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This initiative not only standardizes the market but also has dual strategic goals: supporting compliant stablecoins and consolidating the digital dominance of the U.S. dollar, while creating a demand pool for U.S. Treasury bonds to alleviate the fiscal deficit. This shift in regulatory paradigm may reduce policy uncertainty and strengthen Bitcoin's position as a digital gold asset allocation.

Bitcoin has entered a correction phase after reaching a historic high, with multiple analysts focusing on the technical repair of the futures gap. It is generally believed that the price of Bitcoin may pull back to the range of $113,800 to $117,000 to fill the gap, after which it could usher in a new round of increases. Market data analysis institutions indicate that the market has not yet peaked, with the next key level at $136,000, and strong support in the range of $93,000 to $109,000. From a cyclical perspective, the current expansion has only been ongoing for 12 days, leaving room until the historical cycle of 15-30 days.

Ethereum's market capitalization share has surpassed 10%, with the trends of stablecoins and tokenization driving its demand growth. On the technical side, analysts are also focusing on its futures gap, believing that after filling the gap between $2,830 and $2,925, Ethereum may break upwards to $3,200. Some opinions point out that the increase in Ethereum's trading activity is correlated with the enhanced connectivity of small-cap stocks, possessing rebound momentum under the expected backdrop of liquidity easing.

The altcoin market is showing sector rotation: payment tokens are the first to start, major coins are building momentum, and specific ecosystems and Layer 1 projects are forming a relay team. Chinese-related themes remain hot, with multiple projects reaching historical highs. AI-related tokens are also gaining attention, with market capitalization significantly increasing.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $117,798 (Year-to-date +26.05%), Daily trading volume $66.923 billion
• Ethereum: $117,798 (Year-to-date -5.91%), Daily Trading Volume $41.523 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 106,515 people were liquidated, with a total amount of 355 million USD

ETF Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$403 million, net inflow for 9 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$192 million, net inflow for 8 consecutive days

Today's Outlook

• Multiple projects conducting token generation events or airdrops
• The U.S. House of Representatives held a hearing on digital asset tax policies.
• The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on economic conditions.
• Multiple projects will conduct token unlocks.

Hot News

• Large-scale Ether purchases attract attention
• A certain project has completed a large-scale token buyback.
• Standard Chartered Bank launches institutional-level encryption trading services
• Multiple companies are making strategic investments or acquisitions in the crypto assets field.

The market remains active, and the regulatory environment is gradually becoming clearer. On the technical front, major Crypto Assets are focusing on important price range breakthroughs. Institutional participation continues to increase, reflecting a positive long-term development trend in the market.