The following is an analysis of the Crypto Assets trend for the next two weeks (until August 8, 2025), based on the recent four-day fall.



1. Technical Analysis
Current Trend: According to discussions on platform X, Bitcoin is experiencing a pullback after consolidating at high levels (around $115,000 to $123,000), and it may currently be in a daily level adjustment phase. Some analysts believe this is a retracement in an upward trend, with support levels at $113,000 to $115,790 (CME futures gap).

Key Resistance and Support:
Resistance levels: $121,000 and $123,200. If broken, it may rise to $126,000 to $130,000.

Support level: 113,000 (Fibonacci support), 114,300~115,790 (CME gap). If it falls below 113,000, it may test around 110,000 USD.

Pattern Analysis: Bitcoin may be at the end of a triangular convergence and could break out in the short term. An upward breakout may trigger a second round of increase, while a downward breakout may fill the gap and then stabilize.

Prediction: In the next two weeks, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate widely in the range of $115,000 to $123,000. After breaking through $121,000, it may rise, targeting $126,000 to $130,000. If it falls below $113,000, the retracement could be larger, but the bull market structure remains intact.

2. Macroeconomic and Policy Factors
Federal Reserve Policy: Continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 provide liquidity support for the crypto market, which is favorable for the long-term trend.

US Policy Environment: Trump's return to the presidency and his pro-encryption policies (such as supporting Bitcoin reserves) may boost market confidence and attract institutional funds.

Global Regulation: Some countries (such as China) are tightening regulations on digital currencies, which may cause short-term pressure, but the pilot programs for central bank digital currencies (such as those in China and Sweden) indicate a positive long-term trend.
Prediction: Macroeconomic benefits dominate, short-term corrections may be influenced by regulatory changes or fluctuations in the US stock market, but the overall trend is upward.

3. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Current sentiment: Some users on X believe that the volatility is a high-level turnover, accumulating strength for future increases; there are also warnings about short-term correction risks, as spot premiums decline and futures bulls continue to take positions.

Altcoin performance: If Bitcoin breaks through resistance, other mainstream coins (such as SOL, XRP, ADA, DOGE) may rise in tandem, while Ethereum might enter a consolidation phase.

Capital flow: Institutional funds continue to flow in, and the growth of stablecoins may drive market expansion.

Prediction: Market sentiment is cautious in the short term. If Bitcoin stabilizes and breaks through, funds may quickly flow back, driving an overall rebound.

4. Risk Factors
Short-term risks: Fluctuations in U.S. stocks or weak global economic data may drag down the Crypto Assets market.

Technical risk: If Bitcoin falls below the support of $113,000, it may trigger long stop losses and exacerbate the fall.

Policy risk: Regulatory uncertainty may trigger market panic, especially regarding crypto assets that are not widely recognized.

Long-term risk: If Bitcoin fails to become a safe-haven asset similar to gold, its price may face significant fluctuations.

5. Prediction of the trend in the next two weeks
Comprehensive analysis suggests that the Crypto Assets market may present the following scenarios in the next two weeks:
Optimistic scenario (60% probability): Bitcoin stabilizes between $113,000 and $115,000 before breaking through $121,000, driving a market rebound with a target of $126,000 to $130,000. Altcoins rise in tandem, and market sentiment heats up.

Neutral Scenario (30% probability): Bitcoin oscillates between $115,000 and $123,000, waiting for macro signals. Market sentiment is cautious, and altcoins show mixed performance.

Pessimistic scenario (10% probability): Bitcoin falls below $113,000, stabilizing after filling the gap around $110,000. Short-term market panic, but the bull market structure remains unchanged.

suggestion
Spot investors: You can buy on dips in the range of $113,000 to $115,000, and increase your position after a breakout.

Contract traders: Operate cautiously, set strict stop-losses, and avoid high leverage for chasing rises and falls.

Long-term investors: The current pullback is an opportunity to position, with a focus on Bitcoin and potential altcoins (such as SOL, XRP).

Disclaimer
The Crypto Assets market is highly volatile, and the analysis is based on current information for reference only. Investment should be cautious, and risk management should be done properly.
BTC-0.3%
TRUMP-2.95%
SOL-1.44%
XRP-0.32%
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This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
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