2025/7/23 #BTC# $BTC Current trend assessment: weak fluctuation

Core Indicator Analysis:
1. Price Structure:
The latest closing price is 118,623 USDT, situated in the recent fluctuation range of (116,000-120,000) median.
Forming a short-term descending channel of "lower highs and lower lows" (7/18-7/22)
2. EMA System:
The fast line (118,604) and the slow line (118,399) are about to form a death cross (the difference narrowed to 204 points).
The price continues to run below the EMA200, indicating a long-term weakness.
3. MACD Indicator:
The bar chart has contracted for 6 consecutive periods (from 202 to 107)
DIF(204) and DEA(96) are both above the zero axis but continue to converge.
The upward momentum shows a significant decline.
4. Trading Volume Characteristics:
The volume shrinks during the rebound (the latest cycle is only 116 million)
On July 18, a significant drop occurred accompanied by a volume of 594 million, forming effective resistance.
5. RSI Series Indicators:
RSI(51.46) is in a neutral range but shows a bearish divergence.
StochRSI(68.45/79.98) overbought area death cross, indicating pullback pressure

Key Turning Signal:
Bullish opportunity: If it breaks above 120,000 and MACD expands again.
Short selling opportunity: A drop below 117,000 will confirm the continuation of the downtrend.

Operation Suggestions:
1. Mainly observe in the short term, waiting for trend confirmation.
2. Radicals can buy low and sell high in the range of 118,500-120,000.
3. Strictly set stop loss (Long 117,500, Short 120,500)
The current market is at a critical balance point. It is recommended to pay close attention to the volume and price coordination in the next 2-3 cycles, especially whether the MACD histogram can turn from negative to positive.