The geopolitical situation is becoming more turbulent, and Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing a critical support level test.

Market Observation

Global financial markets opened with significant fluctuations on Monday, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Spot gold prices briefly rose to $3398 per ounce, Nasdaq futures fell by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil prices opened up by 3.7%. Despite this, market reactions were relatively restrained. Analysts predict that if the situation quickly stabilizes, oil prices may retreat to $60 per barrel, but if tensions persist, prices could soar to $130 per barrel. Against this backdrop, the movement of the dollar has become the market focus. Some strategists believe that as the reasons for being bearish on the dollar gradually disappear, a stronger dollar may become the main trade this summer.

Recently, the global financial market has experienced significant fluctuations due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, gold prices surged 3.17% in a short period, but faced selling pressure after the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, maintaining a price of 100,000 dollars and fluctuating only between 100,000 and 110,000 dollars over the past 42 days. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a long-term investment, as its decentralized and limited supply characteristics become increasingly attractive amid global uncertainty, potentially becoming a new choice for investors when traditional safe-haven assets experience heightened volatility.

In an environment of increasing macro uncertainty, Bitcoin has rebounded above $100,000 after falling below $99,000. Multiple analysts have provided different market forecasts, including possible trends, resistance levels, and support levels. Some analyses indicate that if Bitcoin falls below $100,000, it may test $95,000 and the bull market support zone again. At the same time, there is also a view that Bitcoin is approaching the key support at the daily EMA-100 moving average; if the daily closing price drops below $99,000, it could trigger further declines into the $92,000 to $94,000 range. In addition, the tense global geopolitical situation may lead to further price declines, and the lack of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is also putting pressure on the market.

Regarding Ethereum, the price continues to be weak, breaking below the previously important support level of $2378, showing a bearish technical pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to its performance at the resistance level of $2378; if it cannot break through, it may further decline to the demand levels of $2114 and even $2036.

While mainstream cryptocurrencies are consolidating, the altcoin market is also relatively flat. Some emerging tokens such as $BlackCoin, $Oil, and $ERC-69 have appeared, which are conceptually based on "dark web coins", "digital oil", and AI creation, attracting the attention of some investors.

Key Data

As of June 23, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $101,351 (Year-to-date +8.43%), Daily spot trading volume $47.847 billion
• Ethereum: $2,239.19 (Year-to-date -32.84%), Daily spot trading volume is $24.261 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 37 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB ETH: 0.44 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.9%, ETH 8.7%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0825
• Sector Performance: SocialFi decreased by 3.2%; DePIN sector decreased by 3.1%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 184,598 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $642 million, including $232 million in BTC liquidations, $188 million in ETH liquidations, and $21.57 million in XRP liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (105463.14 USD), lower line (103374.76 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (2462.37 USD), lower line (2413.61 USD)

ETF Flow

As of June 20:

• Bitcoin ETF: +6.3658 million USD (net inflow for 9 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: -11.3444 million USD

Today's Preview

• A trading platform will support the Zilliqa network upgrade and hard fork on June 23.
• A certain platform will launch DeLorean (DMC) on June 24.
• SOON will unlock approximately 41.88 million tokens on June 23 at 4:30 PM, which is 22.41% of the current circulation, valued at around 8.4 million USD.
• Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman speaks on monetary policy and the banking industry (June 23, 22:00)
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy report testimony at the House Financial Services Committee (June 24, 22:00)

Top 500 market cap gains today: FUN Token ( FUN ) up 67.51%, Banana For Scale ( BANANAS 31) up 21.43%, Bubblemaps ( BMT ) up 13.79%, Keeta ( KTA ) up 11.06%, XPR Network ( XPR ) up 10.83%.

Hot News

• This week's macro outlook: Trump is looking for trouble everywhere, Powell will "go to the meeting alone".
• Data: Tokens such as BLAST, VENOM, and SOON will experience large unlocks, with BLAST unlocking a value of approximately $22.5 million.
• This Week's Preview | Powell to Deliver Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony; Blast (BLAST) and Venom (VENOM) Unlock Tokens Worth Tens of Millions of Dollars
• A certain platform has launched Bulla (BULLA), eligible users can claim 750 BULLA tokens airdrop.
• A certain platform will launch the Humanity Protocol (H)
• Ark sold over 600,000 shares of Circle stock again on June 20, making a net profit of approximately $243 million from the last three sales.
• Texas Governor signs SB 21 into law, becoming the third state to establish a Bitcoin reserve.
• The giant whale AguilaTrades opened a 20x short position of 1000.82 BTC again in the early morning, currently with an unrealized loss of 1.34 million dollars.
• Arthur Hayes: The current market weakness is temporary, and Bitcoin's status as a safe haven is beyond doubt.
• Suspected Abraxas Capital is currently making a floating profit of 79.92 million dollars by shorting BTC, ETH, and 3 other tokens.
• Wyoming stablecoin WYST is scheduled to launch on August 20.
• Bloomberg analyst: has raised the probability of the vast majority of spot crypto ETFs being approved to 90% or higher.