#CPI数据来袭#

CPI is here, kicking over the traders' milk tea and casually waking up the Federal Reserve's chin.

As soon as the July CPI data was released, the keyboard warriors on Wall Street immediately switched their coffee for strong tea, and even AI didn't dare to blink. The annual inflation rate rose by 3.3%, while the core CPI remained steady at 3.4%. On the surface, it seemed calm like water, but beneath, there were hidden undercurrents. The traders' eyes had already begun to twitch: "Is this a soft landing, or are we being boiled in warm water?"

First of all, **the Federal Reserve's confidence in not raising interest rates has been slightly chilled by this CPI data**. Although the CPI increase was slightly lower than expected, the market collectively held its breath for a moment, but the core components stubbornly refused to turn around, and service prices seemed to be on steroids. What the Fed wants is a "comprehensive cooling," but it now feels more like a "slightly cool" sauna, claiming to want a break while keeping an eye on next month's PCE data.

**This CPI is a "false softness" - it smiles at the stock market but kicks the bond market.** The S&P is grinning, and the Nasdaq is popping champagne, as the market seems to see the shadow of interest rate cuts this year. But don't celebrate too early; this shadow isn't necessarily "hope"; it could also be the tightening slippers that Powell hasn't thrown away yet. The CPI isn't fierce, but it's still hovering around the 3% mark, a Frida Kahlo's eyebrow length away from the Fed's "2% holy grail."

What's more interesting is that **consumers' perception of inflation and the actual CPI have completely diverged**. You tell me inflation is only 3.3%, but I have to pay 70 yuan for a combo meal at McDonald's. On one side, the government is shouting that inflation is slowing down, while on the other side, the common people are biting the bullet and swiping their cards when looking at the bills, a typical case of "data party" and "reality slap".

From a trading perspective, **it is acceptable to be bullish on risk assets in the short term, but don't forget that the CPI is just a temporary performance and not the end of inflation**. This report is more like a pass for the Fed to slow down the rate hike path, but not an invitation for them to rush into the rate-cutting party.

Don't be fooled by the data; this inflation drama is only halfway through, and Powell still holds the script and scissors. Will the next episode suddenly feature a "core rebound + employment counterattack"? Who knows? But for now, the market is already rehearsing for a possible interest rate cut within the year, with investors either hiding in the audience sipping cola or securing a spot in the center of the stage.

**Investing is not about watching the CPI dance, but about anticipating the next rhythm point; don’t wait for the shoe to drop before changing shoes.**