### 📉 **1. Core Judgment of Current Trend**

1. **Short-term adjustment continues**
- The price has fallen from a high of 3040 to around 2950 (-3%), with a "three consecutive bearish candles" formation on the 4-hour chart, and decreasing trading volume, indicating that the bears dominate the Asian session.
- The MACD histogram continues to shorten, the KDJ (84.68) forms a death cross in the overbought zone, and the RSI has fallen from above 70 to 65, confirming a short-term momentum exhaustion.
2. **Long-Short Critical Point**
- **Bullish Defense Line**: 2940 (yesterday's low + institutional support zone), if it falls below this level, it will accelerate the drop to 2900.
- **Short Selling Risk**: If the price stabilizes at 2980 (MA5 conversion pressure), it may trigger a short covering rebound to 3020-3040.

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#### **Specific Tactical Execution:**
1. **Emergency Stop Loss Adjustment**
📉 Move the stop loss immediately from **3068 down to the 3005-3010 range** (yesterday's high + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), reducing the single trade risk to within 3% of the principal (approximately $180).
*Reason: The stop loss space of 3068 is too large (potential loss of $113 per contract), and 3040 is already a strong resistance, the probability of triggering a stop loss above 3000 is low.*

2. **Opportunity to Increase Position**
- **Add Position Point**: When the price rebounds to **2970-2980** (4-hour Bollinger middle band), add 20% to the short position.
- **Combination Stop Loss**: Set uniformly at **3010** (breakthrough indicates trend reversal).

3. **Batch Take-Profit Strategy**
| Target Position | Position Ratio | Technical Basis |
|--------|----------|----------|
| **2920** | 50% | Yesterday's low + Liquidation heatmap support |
| **2900** | 30% | Psychological level + Strong long liquidation zone |
| **2880** | 20% | Weekly MA30 support, keep trailing stop loss |

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### ⚠️ **3. Key Risk Warning Signals**
1. **Short Squeeze Trigger Conditions**:
- If the price **holds steady at 2980 for 30 minutes** and the trading volume surges by >20%, it may trigger a short squeeze (current short ratio is 192%).
2. **Evening Data Storm**:
- **22:00 US PPI Data**: If < expected value, it may stimulate a rebound in risk assets, and positions should be reduced to below 50% before the data.
3. **On-chain Activity Monitoring**:
- The Ethereum Foundation associated address **sold 2416 ETH in 24 hours**, but the institution SharpLink increased its position by 21,000 ETH — the long-short game has intensified.

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### 💎 **4. Ultimate Decision Tree**
> **Execute at current price 2950**:
> - **Radical faction**: Holding the current short position, adding to the position at 2970-2980, stop loss at 3010, target 2900 (risk-reward ratio 1:3).
> - **Stability Faction**: Close 50% of the current position, move the stop-loss of the remaining position down to 2985, and buy back the short position after falling below 2940.
>
> **If the evening PPI is bearish**:
> - Increase short position to a total of 60%, target looking down at 2880.
>
> **If PPI bullishly breaks 3000**:
> - Strict stop loss at 3010, go long (5% position), target 3040.

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### 📊 **Key Positions and Operation Reference Table**
| Price Range | Operation | Position Control | Technical Logic |
|----------|------|----------|----------|
| 2970-2980 | Increase short position | ≤20% of total position | Bollinger middle band + institutional selling pressure area |
| 2940-2950 | **Hold and Observe** | Maintain Original Position | Bull-Bear Watershed |
| **Break below 2940** | Short selling | +15% position | Acceleration drop signal |
| 2980-3000 | **Reduce Position/Stop Loss** | Close 50% | Trend Reversal Risk Zone |
| >3000 | **Stop Loss Reverse Long** | 5% Trial Position | Short Squeeze Market Starts |

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**Conclusion**: You need to **immediately lower the stop loss for your short position to 3010**. During the Asian session, you can hold and observe the situation of breaking 2940. If it hasn't broken before the European session, then reduce your position to avoid risks. Tonight's PPI data will be a decisive variable - **controlling your position > pursuing profit** is the current core principle.