Bitcoin analysts say market quickly absorbs selling, paving way for a bullish July

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin is stuck between $100,000–$110,000 as mid-to-long-term holders lock in profits.
• Despite the movement of older coins, one analyst sees this redistribution as typical in bull markets and believes the market is absorbing the selling pressure.

Data from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin’s (BTC) range-bound trading price between $100,000 and $110,000 is the result of profit-taking. The data shows mid to long-term holders (LTHs) leading the sell-off, with coins aged 3–5 years realizing $849 million, while coins in the 7–10 years cohort cashed out $485 million. The 1–2 year cohort realized $445 million.

BTC: Realized Profit by Age. Source: GlassnodeDaily realized profits hit $2.46 billion, with the 7-day average rising to $1.52 billion, surpassing the year-to-date average of $1.14 billion but below the $4–5 billion peaks seen in Q4 2024.

Despite LTHs selling, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent said there is a silver lining since the data suggests this activity could be net positive.

The Spent Output Age Bands metric highlights when coins of varying holding periods are spent, while Binary Coin Days Destroyed simplifies the data by flagging whether LTHs moved coins on a given day. Dent explained that the consistent appearance of older coin movement is a positive signal in a bull cycle.

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands. Source: CryptoQuantDent said that despite the selling pressure, BTC’s price has remained stable, meaning the market is absorbing it due to steady demand.

Dent also noted more activity from coins held for 1–3 years, reflecting profit-taking from previous cycle buyers. “If anything, it suggests a transition of market leadership from older holders to newer ones,” the analyst said, suggesting the shift signals strength, not weakness.

Related: Less than 15% Bitcoin left on crypto exchanges signals ‘supply problem’

Historical odds favor a Bitcoin rally in July

Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin could be set to follow the S&P 500’s decade-long trend of positive July performance. The SPX recorded its highest monthly close in June, and historically, July has been Bitcoin’s strongest month

Since 2013, BTC averaged a 7.56% return in July, with eight gains in twelve periods, including a 24.03% surge in 2020. Q3 often sees robust risk-asset returns, and Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 suggests that new all-time highs above $112,000 could occur as early as this month

In fact, once Bitcoin attains new highs, the crypto asset could exhibit significant volatility, as suggested by CryptoCon. The technical analyst highlighted a 195-day sideways movement since Dec. 18, 2024, with only 36 days of notable price action. The analysis points to a long “Cycle 4 Ranges Expansion” phase. This slow cycle aligns with historical patterns of brief price breakouts masking a broader uptrend

Bitcoin Cycle Ranges and Expansions analysis. Source: CryptoCon/XSince 2023, every major Bitcoin breakout has unfolded over a 30 to 40-day window, typically followed by a period of sideways consolidation. If history repeats, the next breakout could drive a swift surge toward the $140,000–$150,000 range before entering another cooling phase.

Related: Bitcoin due to copy S&P 500 to hit new all-time high in July: Forecast

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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