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What to Expect in the Next Three Months for Bitcoin Price, What to Pay Attention To?
The leading analysis company in the Crypto currency markets, QCP, published its market report today. Unexpectedly strong employment data increased risk appetite, while eyes turned to the critical non-farm payroll data to be announced on Friday.
While upward movement attracts attention in the US stock markets, the S&P 500 index is gradually progressing towards the psychologically significant level of 6,000 points.
According to the analysis company, stable non-farm payroll data will strengthen the Fed's narrative about the resilience of the labor market and will increase expectations that interest rates will be kept unchanged.
According to QCP's analysis, on the trading front, markets are focused on the expected talks between the US and China. This cautious waiting is also reflected in the crypto market. While Bitcoin's short-term volatility is decreasing, spot prices are hovering around the $105,000 band. The one-month implied volatility has fallen below 40%.
While Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow price range, the low levels of open positions and the normalization of the curve indicate that the market is undecided about its direction. Since May, the volatility curve has especially flattened out in the medium and long term. This situation parallels the decline in the VIX index and has led some investors to take long volatility positions. Notably, the purchase of the September expiration call option at $130,000 with 47% volatility reflects a partial bullish expectation for the third quarter.
According to QCP, the third quarter may be more challenging. While the effects of customs duties are expected to reflect in macroeconomic data, uncertainties regarding the financial package named "Big Beautiful Bill (BBB)" and the debt ceiling may lead to volatility.
*This is not investment advice.
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