$MIRAI on-chain idol issue coin! Can aww.inc and Holoworld enjoy blockchain dividends?

Is this project, which attempts to deeply tie the two-dimensional culture with decentralized finance, a "new formalization" of the metaverse narrative or another footnote to the bubble carnival? This article was written by Marsbit Lawrence and rewritten by ForesightNews. (Synopsis: The secret of Japanese virtual idol IMMA winning over fake Internet celebrities: the magic of interaction without a sense of harmony, who says it has to be a real person?) (Background added: Web3 will let virtual idols blossom? In May 2025, a capital experiment spanning virtual idols, artificial intelligence and blockchain quietly launched in Tokyo. The MIRAI project, jointly launched by Aww Inc., a top virtual human company in Japan, and Holoworld, a Solana ecological AI platform, raised more than $12.9 million in just one week with the appeal of the top IP "imma", breaking the fundraising record for Japanese Web3 projects. Is this project, which attempts to deeply bind two-dimensional culture with decentralized finance, a "new formalization" of the metaverse narrative or another footnote to the bubble carnival? I. Project Background: From Virtual Idols on the Streets of Shibuya to Blockchain "New Species" 1. Aww Inc.: The Creator of the Virtual Human Empire As one of the earliest companies in Japan to lay out a virtual human track, Aww Inc. has built a matrix covering more than 20 virtual IPs such as Ria and Plusticboy since launching the first virtual idol imma in 2018. Its core business model is "Virtual as a Service" (VaaS), which realizes commercial monetization through brand endorsement, fashion brand co-branding, film and television implantation, etc. imma's circle-breaking effect is phenomenal: she appeared with live models in SK-II's global skincare commercials; When the BMW Tokyo Harajuku Experience Store opened, its holographic projection served as the "digital store manager"; Even in a carriage advertisement on Japan's JR Yamanote Line, daily commuters can see her moving images. This kind of immersive marketing of "virtual reality without boundaries" has made Aww Inc. a strategic partner of traditional giants such as Mitsubishi UFJ and Shiseido 2. Holoworld: Solana ecosystem's AI infrastructure madness Holoworld is positioned as a "virtual human on-chain infrastructure", and its core product, the AVA AI engine, can reflect real human actions to the virtual image in real time through 3D scanning and deep learning. The previously issued governance token $AVA (with a peak market value of $300 million and a current market value of $90 million) has been connected to more than 50 metaverse platforms, and provides on-chain identity confirmation services for South Korean girl group AESPA and European and American virtual Internet celebrity Lil Miquela. The essence of this cooperation with Aww Inc. is the vertical integration of "IP resources + technology infrastructure": Aww contributes imma's IP assets and fan traffic, and Holoworld provides AI generation tools and on-chain interactive protocols to jointly build a virtual human economic ecology Second, tokenomics: the design logic behind the over-raising of $12.9 million On May 10, less than two days after the on-chain virtual human MIRAI opened fundraising, the official post announced that the Mirai token pre-sale has ended early, and the amount raised has far exceeded our original goal. The team plans to return excess funds. On-chain data shows that Mirai's pre-sale address has received 76,423.42 SOLs, or about $12.95 million 1. Token distribution: centralized governance and liquidity game According to the white paper, the total number of MIRAI tokens is 1 billion, and the distribution structure presents obvious "resource-oriented" characteristics: This design implies two major controversies: Centralization risk: the team and partners hold a total of 25% of the tokens, and the pre-sale share is highly concentrated (the top 100 addresses account for more than 60%), and community governance may be reduced to a "rubber stamp"; Liquidity traps: 25% of liquidity pools employ phased releases, or cause sharp price swings in the early stages. Historical data shows that similar model projects (such as SkyAI) generally have an amplitude of more than 300% in the first week of launch 2. Over-fundraising and refund mechanism: the "double-edged sword" of market sentiment The original fundraising target of 50,000 SOLs ended early with 76,831 SOLs (about $12.9 million), an over-raising rate of 153.6%. The project team promised to return the excess funds proportionally, but the on-chain data shows that the top 10 addresses contributed 42% of the amount of funds, and the "whale control" feature is significant. Although the refund mechanism can boost confidence in the short term (refer to the sharp rebound after the SLERF incident), it may also trigger a "prisoner's dilemma": some investors choose to sell in the secondary market in order to avoid refund losses, resulting in a downward price spiral III. Price Prediction: Trend Deduction under Multidimensional Factor Game 1. Short-term (1-3 months): Market maker trading and liquidity game Wintermute's deep involvement (the on-chain label shows that its test address participates in the pre-sale, the largest single Wintermute is related, and the transfer to the pre-sale address is nearly 15wu 881sol) injects a booster into the project. Refer to $AVA's online performance: First-day performance: When Q4 2024 went live, the $AVA opened at $0.12, soared to $0.87 within 24 hours (up 625%), and then fell back to $0.35; Market-making strategy: Wintermute completed the initial control through "pulse pull + stepped shipment", and the turnover rate in the first week was as high as 580%. If MIRAI replicates the path, it may present the following stages: Open high: With the help of imma social media popularity (Twitter fans exceed 860,000), the price may quickly exceed $0.5, which is about $50 million in market value; Profit taking: about 30% of pre-sale investors are "new studios" and may withdraw in bulk after 2-3 times earnings; Liquidity siphoning: A 25% initial liquidity pool concentrated in Raydium could trigger MEV robot sniping and exacerbate volatility 2. Mid-term (3-6 months): Ecological landing and narrative verification According to the project roadmap, Q3 will launch the beta version of Mirai Terminal, which supports three major functions: Virtual human casting: Users can generate exclusive images through AVA AI and mint them as NFTs; Tip economy: Fans use MIRAI tokens to buy virtual gifts, and IP such as imma can get a share; Brand co-branding pool: Partners (e.g. Uniqlo, Loft) can launch crowdfunding for limited digital goods. There are two indicators to pay attention to at this stage: MAU (monthly active users): if it fails to break through the 100,000 threshold, the token may fall into the "valuable market"; IP Share Percentage: IMMA Related Transactions...