The U.S. and the Houthis: The Complex Game Behind a 'Stalemate'

Recently, the United States surprisingly reached some sort of "ceasefire" situation with the Houthi armed group in Yemen, which is indeed unexpected. It is important to note that the Houthi armed group, as a highly influential organization in the world military field, has never signed a ceasefire agreement without achieving victory on the battlefield since its establishment, consistently presenting a tough stance.
However, a situation has emerged where the United States and the Houthi forces are "at peace". On May 6th, President Trump claimed to reporters that the Houthis had indicated they "no longer want to fight" and had even "surrendered"; therefore, the U.S. would stop its airstrike operations out of respect for this decision. However, this statement is indeed questionable. Would the Houthis, as a significant force in the regional military landscape, easily surrender to the United States?
As expected, following the news reports, the Houthi armed group quickly reacted strongly and resolutely refuted the rumors. They stated that agreeing to a ceasefire was because the United States made concessions, and that the U.S. was the first to "surrender"; Trump's claims are completely false. Their lead negotiator further clarified: "It is the United States that has changed its position, while our stance remains firm." Moreover, the Houthi armed group emphasized that the ceasefire agreement reached with the United States does not include halting attacks on Israel. This means that regardless of what actions the United States takes, the Houthi armed group will continue to target all entities related to Israel, including ships and more.
The Israeli side also reacted quickly, expressing intense protest and opposition to the ceasefire agreement reached between the United States and the Houthis, and claimed that as long as the Houthis continue to attack Israel, even if the United States does not join the battle, Israel will still retaliate against the Houthis on its own. Judging from Israel's fierce reaction, it seems that what the Houthis said is not unfounded; the ceasefire agreement indeed does not cover stopping attacks on Israel. In this way, the United States seems to have truly 'betrayed' its ally Israel by choosing to cease hostilities alone, which is contrary to the initial goal of U.S. involvement in the conflict. To some extent, the United States has indeed made a concession.
However, even so, it is not easy for the United States to force the Houthi armed forces to agree to a ceasefire. After all, the strength of the Houthi armed forces should not be underestimated. However, it is worth noting that the United States and the Houthi armed forces each have their own stance on the issue of "who makes concessions and who surrenders," and both are merely verbal claims without any paper agreements as evidence. This indicates that the ceasefire agreement reached by both parties this time is merely a verbal agreement and has not formed a legally binding written document, nor has it been signed for confirmation.
Looking back at the history of the Houthi armed forces, they have never signed a ceasefire agreement without achieving victory, and this time is no exception. Although they appear somewhat embarrassed in their confrontation with the United States, the Houthis will at most only verbally agree to a ceasefire and will never sign any agreement. After all, contracts between nations can be torn up at any time, and the United States wanting a verbal ceasefire commitment from the Houthis is of minimal practical effect.
However, it must be said that the United States forcing the Houthis to agree to a verbal ceasefire without achieving victory is indeed an impressive "achievement." Historically, it seems that only the United States has been able to push the Houthis to this extent. The reason the Houthis were compelled to verbally agree to stop attacking the United States is that the U.S. has been engaged in a prolonged conflict with the Houthis without ever achieving victory.
Next, let's review the important outcomes and timelines in this conflict. On October 7, 2023, a new round of the Israel-Palestine conflict broke out. The Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Israel and its allies under the pretext of "supporting Gaza," and used drones and missiles to attack relevant targets in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. This action forced 12% of the world's merchant ships to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, and in the first month alone, it sank three cargo ships related to Israel. After multiple unsuccessful communications with the Houthis, the UK and the US had to deploy a large number of naval forces to engage in battle with the Houthis.
On January 12, 2024, the United Kingdom and the United States began to launch air strikes against the Houthis, striking 60 targets including radar stations and missile depots of the Houthis, claiming to "weaken their attack capabilities". However, the Houthis resumed their attacks the next day, and on January 15 they hit the American freighter Gibraltar Eagle with an anti-ship missile (fortunately there were no casualties). On January 22, 2024, the United States reclassified the Houthis as a "global terrorist organization" and froze their assets. On February 12, 2024, the Houthis hit the British freighter "Rubymar" with missiles (the crew was evacuated and the ship eventually sank). On March 6, 2024, the Houthis announced for the first time that they had shot down the US MQ-9 Reaper drone (worth $32 million each). On March 15, 2024, the U.S. military dispatched B-2 bombers to launch a "surgical strike" on the Houthi underground fortifications, dropping an average of 200 bombs per day. But in the next 10 days, the Houthis shot down three MQ-9 Reaper drones, and the combined cost of war between the two sides set a new world record of 1:600.
In April-May 2024, the Houthis adjusted their tactics and switched to using low-cost drone swarms to consume U.S. anti-aircraft missiles. These cheap drones are poor, but they cost only a few thousand dollars each, and they are sometimes carried out surprise attacks with missiles worth tens of thousands of dollars. The Houthis fire about 10 to 30 drones or missiles a day, waging a war of attrition against a single US anti-aircraft missile worth millions of dollars. In June 2024, the Houthis announced that they had used missiles to hit a U.S. aircraft carrier, but the U.S. military vehemently denied it. However, since June 2024, the U.S. aircraft carrier fleet has indeed moved away from the Houthi coastline and stopped large-scale air strikes against the Houthis. Since then, the two sides have entered a state of "low-intensity confrontation", consuming each other's drones and missiles on a daily basis.
In October 2024, the intensity of attacks from both sides suddenly escalated. The Houthi armed forces began to use cruise missiles and more expensive drones to continuously attack US Navy vessels, while the US military also resumed airstrikes against the military facilities of the Houthis. Outside observers speculated that both sides intended to use warfare to support negotiations in Gaza. In January 2025, a ceasefire agreement was reached for Gaza, and the Houthis suspended their blockade of the Red Sea shipping lanes. However, after Israel restarted its blockade of Gaza, the Houthis announced on March 11 that they would resume attacks on Israeli vessels.
On March 15, 2025, Trump decided to double the U.S. military presence deployed in the Red Sea, ordering the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group to support the USS Truman, forming a dual carrier battle group to engage in combat with the Houthi forces, and commanded the initiation of a "massive airstrike," claiming the goal was to "completely annihilate the Houthi forces," stating that 90% of Houthi military facilities would be destroyed within "48 hours." On March 16, 2025, the Houthi forces launched a counterattack, sinking a British tanker with swarm drones and live-streaming the U.S. military's interception of missiles as a "fireworks show" on social media. On the same day, the Houthi forces simultaneously fired 18 missiles and deployed 11 drones, launching a swarm attack on the USS Truman, forcing dozens of U.S. carrier-based aircraft to urgently return for protection. Subsequently, both sides engaged in a large-scale air offensive and defensive battle.
In April 2025, the Houthis shot down 7 MQ-9 drones in one week, bringing the total to 22, while frequently launching attacks on U.S. aircraft carriers. The U.S. military conducted over 800 airstrikes against the Houthis. On April 9, 2025, the Houthis claimed to have hit the USS Truman aircraft carrier's bridge with a "Palestine-2" missile, which the U.S. military urgently denied but refused to provide visual evidence. On April 21, 2025, the Houthis announced successful simultaneous attacks on Israeli cities and the U.S. carriers USS Truman and USS Carl Vinson. The U.S. denied that its carrier strike group was attacked but still refused to release visual evidence of the carriers.
By May, in less than two months, the U.S. military had lost 22 MQ-9 drones at a unit price of 32 million dollars, 2 F/A-18 "Super Hornet" carrier-based aircraft at a unit price of over 60 million dollars, 1 MH-60S "Sea Hawk" helicopter, and 1 cruiser radar system. Even more alarming, the U.S. military was burning 50 million dollars a day, with interception costs reaching 1,000 times that of the Houthis' attack costs. After such a huge expenditure, the U.S. military's only achievement was the killing of about 200 armed personnel from the Houthis (including 31 command personnel), while consuming weaponry valued at about one-thousandth of the U.S. military's interception costs.
The captain of the "Carl Vinson" once helplessly complained, "We intercept more drones every day than we do bacon for breakfast." The U.S. military has also denied that its carrier-based aircraft and drones were shot down by Houthi forces, claiming they were all crashes. As for why there are always crashes for unknown reasons after Houthi attacks, a U.S. military spokesperson remained silent for a long time before simply answering, "... it might be a coincidence." Regarding the daily military expenditure of $50 million and the thousands of times cost disparity between the two sides, a former Department of Defense budget analyst bluntly stated, "This is not war; this is economic suicide." Congress members have even angrily declared publicly, "We are not fighting terrorists; we are giving a lifeline to Yemen's recycling industry!"
In the court of public opinion, the U.S. military has suffered a complete defeat. The footage of Houthi soldiers shooting down a U.S. drone with shoulder-fired missiles has garnered three orders of magnitude more likes on TikTok than the White House spokesperson. Democratic lawmakers are heartbroken, stating, "The number of likes we've lost on TikTok is greater than the bombs we've lost on the battlefield!"
Ultimately, under the mediation of Oman, the U.S. military and the Houthi forces reached a ceasefire agreement after one year and seven months of conflict. Both sides verbally promised not to attack each other, while the Houthi forces retained the right to continue attacking Israel. In response, Trump announced this as a major victory for the United States, a significant concession made by the Houthi forces. From a practical standpoint, Trump's statement is not without reason. Since its establishment, the Houthi forces have never ceased fire with any party without achieving victory; they have not even given a verbal commitment to ceasefire, either demanding territory or compensation, otherwise they would not cease fire. This time, the Houthi forces have been bombed by the U.S. military for a year and a half and agreed to ceasefire without even receiving a penny in compensation from the United States. This is indeed a significant concession from the Houthi forces, clearly made under pressure from the U.S. military, so in a sense, this is indeed a major victory for the United States.
Although the United States has abandoned its ally Israel in this conflict, it has become the first country in the world to emerge unscathed after fighting against the Houthis, without paying reparations or ceding land, which is undoubtedly a miraculous victory. The Houthis have acknowledged reaching a verbal ceasefire agreement with the United States, which amounts to an open admission of the U.S. military's ability to engage the Houthis in a back-and-forth manner, while also proving that the Houthis have not completely eradicated the U.S. military's capabilities. The United States has indeed performed quite "remarkably" this time, even managing to "force" the Houthis to a standstill. From now on, the United States seems to have the qualification to stand on equal footing with the Houthis, becoming a powerful force comparable to them. Meanwhile, the Houthis appear to have fallen from their former "dominant" position and may only dare to take action against Israel in the future. However, the complex factors and far-reaching impacts behind this conflict go far beyond the superficial "stalemate," and the international situation remains full of uncertainties and challenges.