Original Title: "Metrics Ventures: Bitcoin Bottom Established and Outlook for New Cycle in the Crypto Market"

Original author: Metrics Ventures

1/ Following our April viewpoint, Bitcoin and global risk asset prices have clearly established a bottom this month as expected, and Bitcoin has become the best-performing dollar asset after the liquidity crisis recovery for the first time in many years, which is delightful. As of the report issuance date this month, Bitcoin's actual operating price center has already broken through the consolidation range of March.

2/ Looking at the whole month, after three months of massive trading volume, Bitcoin has actually entered a state of supply depletion, with the trading volume of longs and shorts remaining mild. From the perspective of market sentiment, a large number of on-site traders are shorting the market and altcoins, which aligns with the peak judgment made by many veteran crypto enthusiasts based on fundamental chip theory and trading habits related to sentiment.

3/ Needless to say, altcoins, although some of the newly listed tokens and SUI representatives of the old control of the strong cottage have had price attempts, but the overall performance is still unsatisfactory, before the new liquidity and emotional climax comes, it is difficult to say that the money-making effect will return again, and we are also seeing more and more crypto-related assets choose to embrace SPAC, listing and other liquidity access channels in NASDAQ and other trading venues, it can be expected that the next round of liquidity cycle of capital flow path has been quietly changing, The existing old cottagers are being challenged more severely.

Overview and Commentary on Market Overall Trends and Movements:

This month's market situation can be considered important. During the process of volatility convergence after significant fluctuations, the strength relationship of assets often represents a trend change. The strength of Bitcoin has exceeded the expectations of many participants. However, we believe this period precisely illustrates several very important things:

1/Bitcoin still does not have a centralized selling pressure issue, and the current clearing is mainly from old coins and trading floating chips. Therefore, the end of the cycle should be based on the exhaustion of liquidity and the inflection point, which is contrary to the actual trend of global liquidity at present.

2/ Micro Strategy The first quarter report of 2025 shows a miracle in the history of the capital market, which we believe is not understood by the market, to put it simply, Micro Strategy in the first quarter of 2025 through direct issuance, issuance of deliverable bonds, convertible bonds and other ways to raise $7.7 billion, higher than the 4.4 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2024, during the same period, micro strategy has become one of the strongest dollar risk assets in the case of a sharp decline in U.S. stocks, and the turnover has been in the top ten of U.S. stocks for a long time, which is staggering. What's even more amazing is that, judging from the results, this is a market-wide welcome to reduce the holdings of additional shares, which can be called a miracle in the history of human capital. The market significantly underestimates the actual financing and purchasing power of micro-strategies, and the existing pride and bias will bring about a greater possibility of emotional reversal in the future;

3/ If we previously believed that the pricing power was only "shifting" in 2024, at this moment, we can conclude that the handover of pricing power has been completed. The so-called old analysis framework of the coin circle will mostly be eliminated, and research on asset attributes, the dollar cycle, and the operation rules of assets will be more rewarded by the market. The liquidity circulation path of the coin circle will also confirm the aforementioned conclusion in the next round of emotional upsurge.

Overall, we are very optimistic about the future trend of BTC, which is based on the inevitability of the increasing slope of liquidity growth on one hand, and the divergence between the actual trend and the understanding of market participants on the other hand.

When it comes to the shanzhai, we also believe that the new shanzhai operating model linked to the US stock market will be the main highlight in the next emotional overflow cycle, and it deserves the attention of all peers.

Finally, let's briefly talk about our views on RMB assets. The gorgeous turn of the RMB from the fundamental level will be like the J-10CE shining in the India-Pakistan conflict, slowly letting the world realize again and again that this will also step by step set off the RMB assets on a new upward channel, the bottom continues to rise, ** The price divergence here is caused by the inertia of long-term bearishness, which is precisely the best layout range. Global easing is on the way, and the just-concluded high-profile financial voice is an important signal not to get lost in the chaotic US serial, global central banks have actually made their choice.

To some extent, BTC in the eyes of people in the encryption industry is like A-shares in the eyes of the vast number of Chinese people. What we want to say is exactly the same, using a poem as a summary of the past market performance of the two major MVC heavily weighted industries and our outlook for the future:

Red, orange, yellow, green, cyan, blue, purple, who holds the colorful ribbon dancing in the sky?

After the rain, the slanting sun reappears, the mountains are cloaked in blue.

In those years of fierce battles, the bullet holes were on the village wall.

Decorate this mountain and river, today looks even better.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views.

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