Cardano ETF Prospects Face Market Headwinds

Analysts are currently assessing the likelihood of a Cardano (ADA) spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) launching this year. While some estimations suggest a 75% probability of approval, this optimism is tempered by the current market dynamics and Cardano's on-chain metrics.

Stagnant Market Performance

Despite Bitcoin's recent surge, Cardano has struggled to gain upward momentum, remaining below the $0.80 level. This sluggish performance contrasts with typical altcoin behavior during Bitcoin rallies, where capital usually flows into high-cap altcoins. The absence of ETFs is considered a key factor contributing to this lack of momentum.

On-Chain Metrics Raise Concerns

Cardano's on-chain data presents a mixed picture. While transaction volume in profit-to-loss ratio spikes during price increases, indicating potential profit-taking, the network value to transaction (NVT) ratio has reached a three-month high, suggesting underlying weakness. This implies that the altcoin's price may be outpacing actual network activity.

ETF Approval Odds and Market Competition

Bloomberg analysts estimate a 75% chance of a Cardano ETF approval. However, this is lower than the 90% probability assigned to Solana and Litecoin ETFs. The increasing competition among altcoins for ETF approval intensifies the pressure on Cardano to demonstrate stronger market dynamics and on-chain support.