Golden 10 Data Collation: Core PCE - The "Twists" of the Road to Inflation Decline in the United States Will Be Stubborn?

Question

1. BofA Securities Economist: The 0.3% rise in core PCE for two consecutive months will certainly cause Fed participants to reassess their inflation and policy outlook. Still, we expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, but given the strong economic activity and stubbornly high inflation, the rate cut cycle appears to be shorter. 2. Barron's: The latest readings of the Fed's favored inflation gauge confirm that price increases remain stubbornly above the Fed's annual target. As it turns out, the Fed's final battle against inflation will be long. The core PCE annual rate has been hovering around 2.7% over the past six months. 3. Russell Price, Chief Economist, Ameriprise Financial: A higher reading in October "won't undermine the long-term trend", base effects could lead to a slight increase in PCE inflation in October, and a lower inflation figure for October 2023 means that this week's data will look stronger in comparison. 4. Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist, LPL Financial: The autumn inflation "setback" may be a potential illusion, and I don't think it necessarily represents a change in trend, and PCE inflation is expected to "look very favorable" y/y by early 2025. 5. Société Générale: We expect core PCE to rise by 0.21% MoM and 2.7% YoY, which will not be enough to have a significant impact on the decision to cut or not to cut rates at the December Fed meeting. 6. ING Bank: Core PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, which is still too high, meaning we need to see weak non-farm payrolls data next week and sluggish core CPI and PPI data on December 11 and 12 before the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December.