Golden Ten Review: Institutional Prospects for the Bank of England's Resolution - Staying Put Has Become a Certainty, with a Higher Probability of Interest Rate Cuts in August

GoldenOctober2024 · 2024-06-20T06:23:37+00:00

1. Danske: The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%, and the voting result will be 7:2. It is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in August. The pound is inclined to rise. 2. Santander: There is not enough evidence to support an interest rate cut in June. Wage growth may start to decline, indicating that there may be a rate cut in the third quarter of this year. 3. Barclays: It is expected to start cutting interest rates in August because the current restrictive interest rate levels are damaging the economy, and inflation and wage data will also make greater progress. 4. Bank of America: It is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged with a voting result of 7:2, maintaining data-dependent guidance. Sticky inflation and wage data do not support an interest rate cut. 5. ING: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and cut them in August, as the service industry is still overheating. The policy will eventually push the pound to rise to 0.87 by the end of summer. 6. TD Securities: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, considering that inflation is close to the target. It is expected that the bank will start cutting interest rates in August and have a second cut in November. 7. Nomura Securities: The possibility of an interest rate cut in June has decreased due to the latest wage and inflation data being stronger than expected. The pricing for an interest rate cut in August should be higher. 8. Nordea: It is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, as all public statements about when interest rates may be cut were canceled before the general election. 9. Berenberg: It is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in August, as UK economic growth is slowing down. However, there is an upward risk to the estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter. 10. Pantheon Macroeconomics: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged because wage growth is strong, and an interest rate cut would be unusual. The Bank of England may remain cautious before August. 11. Mizuho Bank: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged because core CPI and wage levels are still high. It is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in August, with a faster pace than expected. 12. Westpac: It is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged and needs to ensure that service sector inflation cools down before cutting rates. Or provide a potential timetable for the first interest rate cut. 13. MUFG: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with two members voting in favor of a rate cut. Continued service sector inflation will raise more questions about an interest rate cut in August.

GoldenOctober2024

2024-06-20 06:23:37

Abstract generation in progress

Danske: The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%, and the voting result will be 7:2. It is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in August. The pound is inclined to rise. 2. Santander: There is not enough evidence to support an interest rate cut in June. Wage growth may start to decline, indicating that there may be a rate cut in the third quarter of this year. 3. Barclays: It is expected to start cutting interest rates in August because the current restrictive interest rate levels are damaging the economy, and inflation and wage data will also make greater progress. 4. Bank of America: It is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged with a voting result of 7:2, maintaining data-dependent guidance. Sticky inflation and wage data do not support an interest rate cut. 5. ING: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and cut them in August, as the service industry is still overheating. The policy will eventually push the pound to rise to 0.87 by the end of summer. 6. TD Securities: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, considering that inflation is close to the target. It is expected that the bank will start cutting interest rates in August and have a second cut in November. 7. Nomura Securities: The possibility of an interest rate cut in June has decreased due to the latest wage and inflation data being stronger than expected. The pricing for an interest rate cut in August should be higher. 8. Nordea: It is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, as all public statements about when interest rates may be cut were canceled before the general election. 9. Berenberg: It is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in August, as UK economic growth is slowing down. However, there is an upward risk to the estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter. 10. Pantheon Macroeconomics: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged because wage growth is strong, and an interest rate cut would be unusual. The Bank of England may remain cautious before August. 11. Mizuho Bank: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged because core CPI and wage levels are still high. It is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in August, with a faster pace than expected. 12. Westpac: It is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged and needs to ensure that service sector inflation cools down before cutting rates. Or provide a potential timetable for the first interest rate cut. 13. MUFG: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with two members voting in favor of a rate cut. Continued service sector inflation will raise more questions about an interest rate cut in August.

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