Analyzing Hyperliquid Whale Holdings, bullish in the long term and shorting in the short term, sticking to mainstream but bearish on altcoins?

Author: Frank, PANews

In the unpredictable cryptocurrency market, the movements of whales have always been an important barometer of market trends. To gain insight into the true flow of "smart money," PANews conducted an in-depth analysis of the latest leaderboard data from the decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid. As of July 30, the whales on the Hyperliquid leaderboard opened positions worth $4.6 billion, with long positions dominating at $3 billion. However, beneath this seemingly optimistic overall data lies a starkly contrasting strategic divergence: traders are firmly bullish on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, while simultaneously shorting numerous altcoins and MEME coins. What does this significant divergence indicate for the future direction of the market?

Overall trend: Bulls still dominate, but there are signs of cooling enthusiasm.

From a macro data perspective, the bullish forces still hold the upper hand. As of July 30, the total position size of Hyperliquid's top traders is approximately $4.6 billion, with long positions around $3 billion and short positions about $1.57 billion, resulting in an overall long-short ratio of about 66%.

However, beneath the optimistic data lies a cautious signal. First, the bullish trend has shown signs of decline, with the long-short ratio falling from a high point of 76% on July 27. Second, in terms of profitability efficiency, the performance of the bears is more outstanding: among the tokens that the whales are bearish on, as much as 79% of the positions are in profit; while among the tokens they are bullish on, this ratio is only 53.5%. This indicates that although the whales are generally inclined to be bullish, they find it easier to profit from their short-term bearish decisions.

In addition, Coinglass data shows that among the top 125 wallet addresses of Hyperliquid, short positions have also become the main force, which differs from the smaller wallet addresses. The positions of smaller amount addresses indicate that they generally remain bullish.

Whale Big Data: Sticking to the mainstream, shorting altcoins

The most core strategic divergence among the whales is reflected in their choice of tokens, presenting a clear picture of "sticking to the mainstream and shorting altcoins."

In terms of mainstream assets, whales have shown a firm bullish stance. Taking BTC and ETH, which have the highest positions, as examples, their long-to-short ratios exceed 66%. Specifically for BTC, the total long position amounts to 1.2 billion USD, while the short position is only 479 million USD. Interestingly, the average liquidation distance for short positions is as long as 48.3%, far higher than the 14% for longs, which suggests that many short positions may not be purely bearish, but are used for risk hedging and protective orders. Additionally, tokens like TON (19.83 million USD position) and AAVE (25.18 million USD position) also have high long-to-short ratios, making them among the few altcoins favored by whales.

However, the attitude of whales towards altcoins and MEME coins is completely opposite. A series of tokens including FARTCOIN, PUMP, DOGE, SUI, BONK, PEPE, and even BNB have a long-short ratio below 50%, indicating that short positions dominate. For tokens like MOODENG, SYRUP, S, and JUP, the long-short ratio is even less than 10%, showing extreme bearish sentiment. These short positions are generally in profit, further confirming the effectiveness of the whales' short-selling decisions.

Overall, although the bullish trend of all tokens remains mainstream, it has shown a downward trend since July 27, with the long-short ratio dropping from over 76% the previous day to 66% on July 28. Among the tokens favored by whales, 53.5% of the tokens are overall in a profitable state. Among the 29 tokens that are generally bearish, 79% are overall in a profitable state.

Specifically regarding BTC data, 71.7% of the traders in the leaderboard are long, with a total of $1.2 billion in long positions. The average entry price is around $114,000, and the average liquidation distance is 14%, currently resulting in an overall profit of $27.82 million. In terms of short data, the positions are noticeably less, at about $479 million, with an average entry price of $115,000, but the average liquidation distance is still at 48.3%, indicating that the whales' short positions seem to lean more towards hedging orders.

In terms of position size, the average long position of BTC whales is 10 million USD, while the average short position is about 7.98 million USD.

Top Traders: Bullish in the Long Term, Observing or Shorting in the Short Term

In addition to the overall data, the attitudes of top traders also seem to provide some insight into the market sentiment.

The trader with the highest profits on Hyperliquid, 0x8af700ba841f30e0a3fcb0ee4c4a9d223e1efa05, currently has a total profit of approximately $54.86 million. This trader's profit curve has been generally upward since December 2024, indicating that they are a relatively stable and enduring trader.

His positions currently appear relatively balanced in terms of total amount, with both long and short positions around 63 million USD. In terms of specific token choices, he mostly holds short positions and a few long positions. Among them, the position with the highest floating profit is FARTCOIN, which was shorted at 1.44 USD, and the current unrealized profit has reached 1.12 million USD. Among his 16 profitable orders, only 2 are long positions with floating profits. AAVE has a floating profit of 976,000 USD. From his positions, it basically aligns with big data, maintaining long positions on BTC and ETH, but looking bearish on altcoins in the short term.

The second-ranked trader 0x15b325660a1c4a9582a7d834c31119c0cb9e3a42 currently has a profit of about 35 million USD. This trader clearly maintains a long-term optimistic attitude towards the market, with all positions being long and an overall leverage of only 3.6 times. From a cyclical perspective, this trader is obviously a long-term trader, with the entry price for his ETH long positions at only 2812 USD, BTC long positions at 110,000 USD, and SOL at 142 USD, almost all being long-term holds. However, not all of his long positions have realized profits; the floating loss for FARTCOIN is 235,000 USD, for BIGTIME is 45,000 USD, and for STRK is 18,000 USD. The remaining orders are all in profit, with just the ETH long positions yielding him a floating profit of 7.21 million USD.

The third largest trader is 0x2ba553d9f990a3b66b03b2dc0d030dfc1c061036, whose floating profit has reached 40 million USD (in fact, he should be the second trader in terms of floating profit). In this trader's positions, 78% are short positions. This trader appears to be a short-term trader, with an average holding time of less than 2 hours. Currently, his positions are not large, suggesting that he is in a wait-and-see mode regarding the market.

From the positions of these traders, long-term traders generally maintain an optimistic outlook for the future, while short-term traders tend to be more bearish or prefer to reduce their positions and wait.

In summary, Hyperliquid's whale data paints a picture of the market where "holding mainstream assets and shorting altcoins" is the trend. Although the overall positions lean towards long, this bullish sentiment is mainly concentrated on a few core assets like BTC and ETH, with a noticeable downward trend in their dominance. Meanwhile, whales have numerous short positions in altcoins, with a higher profit ratio, indicating their general bearishness and effective harvesting of high-risk assets. From the perspective of top traders' personal strategies, long-term investors remain optimistic and patient, while short-term traders tend to be more cautious, opting for short positions or holding cash. For ordinary investors, understanding the whales' "dual" strategy may be more important than simply following the direction of longs and shorts.

Risk Warning: The content of this article is based on public data analysis and is for informational reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice or opinion. The cryptocurrency market carries a high level of risk, with significant price volatility. Please exercise caution when investing and ensure to think independently and bear all risks yourself.